Morning wrap (17.09.2025)

Futures on major indexes in the US and Europe remain under pressure, which yesterday ended the global rally, indicating that investors are holding their breath ahead of today’s Fed decision (US500: -0.05%, EU50 flat).

Ursula von der Leyen spoke yesterday with Donald Trump about increasing economic pressure on Russia, whose economy is supported by inflows from fossil fuel sales. The European Commission is currently preparing the 19th sanctions package, which includes, among other things, a faster phase-out of all purchases of Russian energy resources.

Donald Trump filed a lawsuit against The New York Times for $15 billion, accusing the newspaper of defamation, “industrial-scale” libel, and interference in the 2024 election.

Sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region is mixed. In China, we see a continuation of gains (CHN.cash: +1.4%, HK.cash: +1.1%), which lifted the HSCEI index to its highest level in 4 years. Supported by trade data, Japan’s Nikkei (JP225) hit a new record, from which it has since retreated, currently trading flat. AU200.cash is down 0.3%.

Japan’s export decline turned out to be much smaller than expected (-0.1% y/y, forecast -1.9%, previous -2.6%), mainly thanks to a strong rebound in shipments to Asia (+1.7%) and Europe (+7.7%), which helped offset the fall in trade with the US (-13.8% y/y). Auto shipments to the US remain in collapse (-28.3%, previous: -28.4%).

New Zealand’s current account deficit in Q2 amounted to $3.4 billion, $702 million less than in the previous quarter. The improvement was mainly due to a narrowing of the primary income balance deficit, which offset declines in goods and services exports.

New Zealand’s consumer confidence index fell from 91.2 to 90.9 in reaction to still rising living costs (including food inflation).

Volatility in the forex market is very subdued, reflecting the tension ahead of the Fed’s decision. The dollar is timidly rebounding after falling to record lows (USDIDX: +0.1%). The weakest currently is the Swiss franc (USDCHF: +0.15%) and Antipodean currencies, which are ending their recent rally (AUDUSD, NZDUSD: -0.1%). The pound and yen are flat, EURUSD is down 0.05% to 1.186.

Precious metals are seeing the first clear correction in a week. Gold is retreating 0.3% to $3680 per ounce, while silver is down 1.3% to $41.94 per ounce. Palladium is also in the red (-0.4%).

Brent and WTI oil are pausing a 3-day rally (OIL: -0.2%, OIL.WTI: -0.7% after rollover), while NATGAS is trading flat after yesterday’s volatility spike.