Morning wrap (18.02.2026)

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The session in the Asia-Pacific region proceeded in moderately positive sentiment. Australia’s AU200.cash index is gaining 0.18%, Japan’s JP225 is up 0.22%, and Singapore’s SG20cash is rising 0.17%. Chinese markets remain closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
The New Zealand dollar was the weakest currency in Asia after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the OCR rate unchanged at 2.25% and adopted a slightly more dovish tone than the market had expected.
The updated rate path allows for the possibility of a hike at the end of 2026. However, the new governor, Anna Breman, emphasized that policy will remain accommodative “for some time,” and any potential tightening will depend on clearly stronger growth and inflation.
The conditional nature of this path limited expectations for short-end yields and put pressure on the NZD.
The AUD weakened in line with the NZD, although the scale of declines was smaller.
Japan’s exports rose by 16.8% y/y in January, marking the fastest growth pace in over three years, mainly driven by stronger shipments to China ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations.
Although the headline reading was impressive, analysts stress that the increase most likely reflects seasonal distortions rather than a structural acceleration in external demand. Sentiment among manufacturers improved in February.
The yen weakened moderately during the session, although moves remained limited amid relatively low liquidity. Authorities continue to signal vigilance against excessive and disorderly currency movements.
In Australia, wages rose by 0.8% q/q in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations and the previous reading, while annual growth held steady at 3.4%. The data point to stable wage dynamics, with no signs of renewed acceleration.
Gold returned above the 4,900 USD level, continuing its structural uptrend supported by geopolitical and political uncertainty.
The IMF called on Japan to continue gradually raising rates toward a neutral level by 2027 and warned against cutting the consumption tax, arguing that fiscal easing could threaten debt sustainability.

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