Morning Wrap (20.06.2025)

Risk assets edged higher after Trump said he would make a decision on a potential strike on Iran “within two weeks” — a remark markets interpreted as a delay. The comment lifted U.S. equity futures, weakened the dollar, and led to declines in oil and gold prices.

Trump is scheduled to convene a National Security Council meeting on Friday at 11:00 a.m. ET (3:00 p.m. BST), with Iran–Israel tensions as the main topic. The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee hinted that Trump may present a final offer to Iran’s Supreme Leader to abandon nuclear ambitions.

Israeli media report that Iran is planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe. Security services are said to be aware of the threat.

UK's David Lammy and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio both emphasized that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons, highlighting the Middle East as a region of high risk. Their statements reflect tightening international cooperation amid escalating tensions.

Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi is expected to meet with the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva. Trump’s representative, Witkoff, will not attend. Trump will lead the National Security Council meeting on Friday to assess the situation.

Japan’s May CPI came in at 3.5%. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose to 3.7%, mainly due to a 102% year-over-year surge in rice prices. Service sector inflation also ticked slightly higher.

The People’s Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. The decision follows earlier monetary easing measures.

JPMorgan remains bearish on the U.S. dollar, citing slowing U.S. growth, foreign policy concerns, and reduced demand for American assets. The bank sees a long-term structural weakness in the USD.