Morning wrap (24.11.2025)

Major currency pairs are trading in narrow ranges today. The Japanese market remains closed due to a holiday.

Weekend reports indicate that Washington is encouraging Kyiv to accept concessions to Russia as part of a modified peace proposal. Territorial and security issues remain unresolved.

Brent/WTI slipped slightly at the start of the new week on speculation that a Russia–Ukraine deal could unlock sanctions. The declines have now been fully erased.

Chinese semiconductor stocks fell on rumors that Trump may allow sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China.

The market expects a 25 bp cut to 2.25% at Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting. According to economists, this may be the final cut in the cycle.

Barclays expects a strong dollar in 2026, supported by a massive AI-capex cycle boosting productivity and growth, high global demand for U.S. technology, and reduced concerns about tariffs. The bank also expects a more stable backdrop for risk assets into 2026.

Barclays assumes that Powell is likely to lean toward a cut at the December FOMC meeting. Currently, 6 policymakers lean toward a pause and 5 toward a cut, not counting Powell. He is expected to steer the committee toward easing in December. Governors rarely oppose the Chair, giving him decisive influence.