Morning wrap (29.09.2025)

Asian-Pacific indices post slight gains in the first part of the day. Chinese equity indices rise in the 0.80–1.10% range, Japan’s JP225 falls 0.30%, while Australia’s AU200.cash gains 0.66%.

The dollar is the weakest currency in the first part of the day. The USIDX index posts a decline of 0.20–0.30% against other G10 currencies. EURUSD rises 0.20%, while USDJPY falls 0.41%.

Gold broke above USD 3,800, rising 1% on the day and over 10% monthly, on the back of safe-haven demand and momentum. The metal is on track for its best month since July 2020.

Markets continue to price in elevated government shutdown risk, though lower than over the weekend. The short-term budget expires on October 1. Republicans have insisted they will not make concessions on passing a short-term funding bill.

Tensions escalated after the White House Office of Management and Budget last week instructed agencies to prepare mass layoff plans in the event of a shutdown.

Oil opened lower but recovered losses. The market weighed reports that OPEC+ plans to raise October quotas by at least ~137 kb/d. Iraq resumed crude flows through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey at ~180–190 kb/d, adding supply. Positioning remains cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

UBS estimated the probability of a U.S. recession this year at 93%, based on indicators such as income, spending, industrial production, and employment. Even so, the bank stopped short of declaring a recession, calling the economy “weak but not collapsing.”

Tesla will publish sales figures this week. The consensus currently assumes 448–456k deliveries (vs. 463k a year ago), with last-minute purchases boosted by U.S. tax credits at the end of the quarter.

Reports say Xi is pushing for a change in the U.S. stance on Taiwan independence. One of the pressure points is Trump’s interest in a trade deal.