Morning wrap (30.01.2026)

Across the broader financial markets, a sell-off is underway and recent trends are reversing as multiple factors converge — including a new unexpected frontrunner to become Fed chair. Chinese indices are down between 0.85% and 1.40%, Australia’s AU200.cash is lower by 1.10%, while Japan’s JP225 is marginally higher by 0.05%.

Precious metals are also falling sharply. Gold is down nearly 4.00% to USD 5,160 per ounce, while silver is sliding 5.70% to USD 109 per ounce.

In FX markets, we are seeing a reversal of the recent anti-dollar trend, supported by the emergence of a new Fed favorite — Kevin Warsh. The USDIDX is up 0.45%, already rebounding 1.06% from Tuesday’s low. EURUSD is down 0.34%, while USDJPY is up 0.55%.

Cryptocurrencies are also experiencing a sharp sell-off. Bitcoin is down more than 3.00% to USD 81,000, while Ethereum is almost 4.00% lower at USD 2,700. The declines are being driven by short-term profit-taking across markets and by expectations of Kevin Warsh’s nomination, who is seen by the market as the least crypto-friendly among leading candidates.

Reports suggest Trump may announce his nomination decision as early as today during US morning hours (January 30). On the betting platform Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being chosen by Trump has surged from around 30% to as high as 94%. Just yesterday, the frontrunner was Rick Rieder, who was assigned nearly 48% probability by the market.

Markets have interpreted Warsh as a hawkish choice, supporting the US dollar, though debate continues over whether any Trump nominee would actually maintain a hawkish stance in practice.

Tokyo CPI inflation fell to 1.5% y/y (from 2.0%), while core inflation eased to 2.0% (from 2.3%), with clear cooling also visible in underlying measures. This reduces pressure for another Bank of Japan hike following December’s move to 0.75%, though USDJPY rose more due to USD/Warsh dynamics than the CPI release itself.

Apple shares are up 0.55% following quarterly results. The company guided for roughly 16% revenue growth in the March quarter, far above market expectations. Apple pointed to an iPhone-led rebound and improved sales in China, supporting sentiment toward mega-cap stocks.

A Panamanian court annulled port contracts owned by CK Hutchison, reopening concerns around Chinese infrastructure in strategic locations. Even without immediate flow impacts, it adds another layer of geopolitical risk for global logistics and shipping.

UK Prime Minister Starmer’s visit to Beijing — the first by a British PM since 2018 — delivered pragmatic trade agreements. Trump, however, warned the UK against deepening ties with China.

A Reuters poll showed that 24 of 31 economists now expect a 25 bp RBA rate hike to 3.85% on February 3, compared with over 85% previously expecting no change at 3.60% in December. Most still see this as a one-off move rather than the start of a tightening cycle.

The Wall Street Journal reports plans to fund most US agencies on a long-term basis, with temporary funding for DHS for two weeks, pushing back the key immigration and ICE dispute — reducing near-term shutdown risk.

Trump announced potential talks with Iran while also referencing “very powerful ships” moving into the region. Markets interpret this as deterrence with room for de-escalation — relevant mainly for oil risk premia. Oil is down around 2.00% today.

UBS raised its gold target to USD 6,200/oz for March/June/September 2026 (from USD 5,000) and outlined a bullish scenario of USD 7,200, with a downside case of USD 4,600. The bank also expects around 950 tonnes of central-bank purchases in 2026 and a base case of USD 5,900 by end-2026.