Morning Wrap: Dollar in a trap, all eyes on NFP 🏛️(February 11, 2026)

We begin Wednesday's session on the financial markets.

Equity markets: Asian stocks rose moderately, supported by stable investor sentiment. The Kospi index rose 0.8%, while the Hang Seng added 0.3%.

Japan: despite the bank holiday and the closure of cash markets, the yen strengthened, albeit without any clear new impetus.

USA: Statements by Hammack and Logan from the Fed were rather hawkish, undermining the narrative of rapid policy easing. Today, all eyes are on the NFP at 2:30 p.m.

China: Inflation data showed weaker CPI growth and persistent producer deflation, while the yuan remained stable thanks to the PBoC's actions. Chinese inflation data for January 2026 showed CPI growth of 0.2% y/y (below the forecast of 0.4% y/y and after 0.8% in December), with producer prices (PPI) falling by 1.4% y/y (slightly milder than the expected -1.5% and after -1.9% in December).

Australia: The Australian dollar reached new highs against major currencies following hawkish comments from the RBA and expectations of further interest rate hikes. RBA's Hauser reiterated that inflation is too high with visible supply constraints; after last week's rate hike to 3.85%, markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a further increase to 4.10% in May.

Just before the market opened in Europe, a number of companies presented their quarterly results:

• ABN Amro (Q4 2025): Revenue €2.26 billion below forecast (€2.29 billion), profit €410 million below expectations (€497 million), NII €1.67 billion above estimate, NII forecast for 2026 at €6.4 billion below consensus.

• Heineken (FY 2025): Adjusted operating profit of €4.39 billion slightly above expectations (€4.37 billion), beer volume -1.2% better than forecast (-2.48%), dividend €1.90 according to estimates, operating profit growth forecast for 2026 in the range of +2% to +6%.

• Dassault Systèmes (Q4 2025):  Non-IFRS revenue €1.68 billion below expectations (€1.74 billion), ex-FX growth +1% vs. forecast +3.49%, operating margin 37% close to estimates (37.3%), Q1 2026 forecast ex-FX +1-5%.

• Siemens Energy (Q1 2026): Revenue of €9.68 billion below forecast (€9.83 billion), profit before one-offs of €1.16 billion above expectations (€992 million), orders of €17.61 billion well above estimates (€14.17 billion), confirmation of FY sales forecast +11-13%.

• Commerzbank (Q4 2025): Revenue €3.14 billion above forecast (€3.07 billion), net profit €737 million better than expected (€629 million), operating profit €1.07 billion above estimates (€1.01 billion), NII €2.05 billion according to forecasts, net profit forecast for 2026 above €3.2 billion (est. €3.41 billion).

On the Forex market, we are seeing similar dynamics to those observed yesterday. The Japanese yen is currently performing best, rising against most of the world's currencies. Antipodean currencies are also performing relatively well. The US dollar continues to be under the greatest downward pressure.

Precious metals are currently recording moderate increases, but these are not extraordinary movements considering the overall dynamics of recent changes. SILVER is up 2.1% and GOLD is up 0.66%.

Bitcoin is down 2.3% at the time of writing and is trading in the £67,000 range.

Heatmap of volatility currently visible on the Forex market. Source: xStation