Morning Wrap: Emotions Subside After the Truce. The Fed Takes Center Stage in the Markets

📈 Stock Market

• Yesterday's session on Wall Street, despite a positive opening, ended with a moderate correction, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost nearly 1.2%.

• The only major index to finish the day in positive territory was the Dow Jones, rising by 0.6%.

• The initial optimism of investors related to the news of the signed truce gradually faded.

• Information regarding OpenAI's finances comes as the company prepares for its stock market debut, having already filed a confidential IPO prospectus; according to media reports, the debut could occur as early as September 2026, with a potential valuation reaching $1 trillion.

• SpaceX shares rose during yesterday's session by nearly 5%, breaking above the $200 level.

• Today's session in Asia is seeing mixed moods, with gains led by the Japanese Nikkei and South Korean Kospi, while the Chinese Hang Seng is recording a minor correction.

🧠 OpenAI

• OpenAI spent $3.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, against revenues amounting to $5.7 billion (the data comes from documents distributed to shareholders and reported by The Information).

• The scale of spending shows that despite dynamic revenue growth, the company continues to incur enormous costs related to the development of artificial intelligence models, the expansion of computing infrastructure, and the maintenance of services such as ChatGPT.

🏛️ Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy

• Market attention is currently focused on today's Fed interest rate decision, which is undoubtedly the most important event of today's session.

• It is worth recalling that this will be the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.

• The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, begins his term in a demanding economic environment characterized by persistent inflation, uncertainty regarding the pace of economic growth, and elevated volatility in financial markets.

• Kevin Warsh's initial monetary policy decisions will be closely scrutinized by investors and could significantly impact the assessment of his entire term.

🌍 Geopolitical (USA – Iran)

• Donald Trump stated that he is confident in the success of the agreement between the US and Iran, emphasizing that his core condition remains ensuring that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons.

• According to Trump, the memorandum signed by both sides clearly defines this objective, and negotiations are now moving to the next stage, which is expected to lead to a final agreement within the coming weeks.

• Trump added that Iran is interested in a swift conclusion to the talks and a return to normal economic relations.

• In Trump's view, the main outlines of the agreement have already been agreed upon, further negotiations will focus on hammering out the details, and the second stage of talks may turn out to be easier than the first.

China

• Chinese authorities announced the issuance of special bonds worth 300 billion yuan to recapitalize the banking sector.

• Beijing also pledges to intensify efforts aimed at curbing local government debt and stabilizing the real estate sector.

• The Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), Pan Gongsheng, assessed that the previous pace of credit growth is no longer possible or desirable, signaling a more moderate credit expansion in the upcoming quarters.

• Simultaneously, the PBOC is preparing further measures to support the internationalization of the yuan by developing offshore foreign exchange and bond markets.

🛢️ Commodities

• The decline in oil prices deepened following reports that, under the framework of the prepared agreement between the US and Iran, Tehran could almost immediately resume legal sales of the commodity.

• The market interpreted this information as a signal of a possible increase in global oil supply and a gradual normalization of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Investors began pricing in greater availability of the commodity on the global market, which exerted pressure on Brent and WTI oil prices.

• However, some analysts point out that a full normalization of exports may take longer due to logistical constraints and security concerns.

• Mixed moods are also being observed in the precious metals market.

• Gold is holding near its baseline and is trading around $4,350 per ounce.

• Silver is gaining slightly and remains above the $70 per ounce level.

• Brent crude is trading below $80 per barrel.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• The cryptocurrency market is also presenting a mixed picture today.

• Bitcoin is losing slight ground and remains below the $66,000 level.

• Ethereum is up by about 1.8% and is testing the $1,800 mark.