Key takeaways
- U.S. and European equity index futures are attempting to rebound, with the US500 up around 0.4%, although market sentiment remains fragile as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to fuel volatility.
- Rising oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and escalating tensions in the Middle East are weighing on bond markets, while semiconductors, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are staging a recovery.
- In Europe, investors are focusing on stronger-than-expected results from Novartis and Julius Baer, while Schindler reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
Key takeaways
- U.S. and European equity index futures are attempting to rebound, with the US500 up around 0.4%, although market sentiment remains fragile as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to fuel volatility.
- Rising oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and escalating tensions in the Middle East are weighing on bond markets, while semiconductors, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are staging a recovery.
- In Europe, investors are focusing on stronger-than-expected results from Novartis and Julius Baer, while Schindler reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
U.S. equity index futures are attempting to recover earlier losses, with the US500 currently up around 0.4%, although market sentiment remains fragile amid the conflict between the United States and Iran. Yesterday’s session was pressured by a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which overshadowed hopes for a ceasefire and triggered a sell-off across most S&P 500 stocks.
- European equity index futures are also trading higher ahead of the open, with the EU50 and DE40 gaining close to 0.5%, while EURUSD is up 0.1%. Interestingly, Bitcoin is also rebounding despite elevated oil prices, with investors now paying almost $65,500 for the cryptocurrency, while Ethereum is up 1%.
- The semiconductor sector was an exception. The chipmakers’ index rebounded yesterday after previously entering a bear market, while shares in Taiwan rose by more than 3% today, partly supported by a recovery in TSMC and other semiconductor companies.
- At the same time, diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East have intensified. Reports emerged of a possible 10-day pause in strikes. A modest decline in energy prices improved global risk sentiment and supported a rebound in equity markets.
- Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could rise to $120 per barrel later this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Asian stock markets rebounded after three consecutive sessions of losses, driven mainly by a strong recovery in semiconductor and other AI-related stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 2.2%, South Korea’s Kospi rose around 4%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 2.7% after entering correction territory on Friday.
- Mainland China’s technology sector surged by nearly 7%, supported by intervention from state-backed institutions.
- Despite the current inflation risk and uncertainty over how central banks may respond, precious metals are attempting to rebound, with gold gaining almost 1.2% and silver rising nearly 3%.
- A sharp sell-off also hit UK government bonds after the new British prime minister, Andy Burnham, unsettled investors with his approach to fiscal policy.
- Alphabet is reportedly developing its own server chip designed to optimize the Gemini artificial intelligence model, which could reduce the company’s dependence on external AI infrastructure providers.
- Donald Trump said Iran would face consequences for the deaths of three U.S. soldiers, even as mediators continue efforts to secure a new ceasefire. Yesterday, Iran-backed Houthi rebels announced plans to block Saudi shipping routes in the Red Sea, keeping the risk of further escalation high and sustaining the geopolitical premium in oil prices.
- Trump signed an executive order tightening the rules under which defense companies may receive exemptions from restrictions on the use of critical minerals and materials sourced from selected foreign suppliers.
- Defense contractors could lose government contracts if they fail to replace high-risk foreign suppliers, make use of available domestic alternatives, and map the supply chains of key minerals and components used in weapons systems.
- According to the Iranian military, a missile strike targeted U.S. missile systems deployed at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait. At the same time, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported explosions in Isfahan, pointing to a further escalation in military activity.
- Donald Trump said he had spoken with the new UK prime minister, Andy Burnham. The two leaders discussed trade, North Sea oil production, U.S.-UK military cooperation, and efforts to restore safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and said they planned to meet soon.
- Novartis reported second-quarter 2026 net sales of $14.41 billion, above the consensus forecast of $13.94 billion, and reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial outlook. Core earnings per share came in at $2.41 versus expectations of $2.16, while sales of Promacta/Revolade reached $179 million, below the projected $202.1 million. Tasigna generated revenue of $142 million compared with the $147.2 million consensus estimate. Kisqali delivered sales of $1.70 billion, slightly above expectations of $1.68 billion. Pluvicto sales totaled $651 million, below the $671.7 million forecast, while Entresto generated revenue of $1.18 billion versus expectations of $1.29 billion. The strongest positive surprise came from Cosentyx, which delivered sales of $1.82 billion compared with the consensus estimate of $1.14 billion.
- Schindler generated first-half 2026 revenue of CHF 5.33 billion, slightly below expectations of CHF 5.39 billion. New orders totaled CHF 5.79 billion versus the CHF 5.80 billion consensus forecast. The company reaffirmed its 2026 outlook.
- Julius Baer ended the first half of 2026 with assets under management of CHF 547 billion, slightly above expectations of CHF 545.55 billion. Adjusted profit before tax reached CHF 813.9 million compared with the forecast of CHF 776.2 million. The adjusted cost-to-income ratio declined to 62.6%, better than the expected 64.8%, indicating improved operating efficiency at the bank.
US500 chart (H1 timeframe)
Looking at the S&P 500 futures chart, the contract successfully defended the key support area around 7,470 points and is now attempting to break above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line).
Source: xStation5
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