Morning Wrap: Oil prices heading back down? (24.08.2026)

According to reports from Axios, Friday night saw increased activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 16 million barrels were reportedly transported, representing nearly 80% of the standard volume prior to the outbreak of the war. Movement was primarily observed off the coast of Oman, with an estimated 40 tankers transiting in both directions.

🛢️ Commodities

As crude oil prices reached local peaks at the end of last week, approaching levels seen a month ago, the threshold for further gains remains high. Investors are awaiting announcements from Scott Bessent, who is expected to outline measures the US will take to exert economic pressure on Iran. As he noted in the Financial Times: "at dawn, economic 'D-Day' will begin – the largest financial offensive in history directed against an enemy."

The start of the week is marked by modest declines.

• Brent crude is currently trading at approximately $93 per barrel (-1.4%).
• WTI crude is priced at around $85.50 (-1.6%).
• LNG prices are also retreating. Liquefied natural gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is currently trading at approximately $66 per MWh (-0.6%).

Figure 1: Oil [H1] (17.08 - 24.08)

Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026

🌍 Geopolitics

News from the Middle East remains concerning, yet it no longer dominates the headlines of the trade press. Over the weekend, attention shifted towards cyberattacks originating from Iran.

📈 Equities

The equity market passed through the weekend without significant disruption. Both US S&P 500 and German DAX futures are oscillating near Thursday's closing levels.

Red dominates Asian exchanges. Declines are evident in the Japanese Nikkei 225 (-0.5%), the Chinese Hang Seng (-1.9%), and the Korean Kospi, where the scale of the movement is more pronounced at -3.2%. The primary theme is a more than 8% drop in Samsung shares. Investors reacted unfavourably to news regarding plans to redistribute between $65 billion and $80 billion in profits; expectations were for a higher sum and more specific details regarding share buyback programmes.

Alibaba is also losing ground (nearly -10%) following the announcement of plans to raise approximately $10 billion through a new share issuance.

The highlight of the week for equity markets will be Nvidia's quarterly results, scheduled for Wednesday. The tech giant's report is viewed by the market as a critical test for the sustainability of the AI-driven bull market. Investors will be scrutinising not only the financial results for the last three months but, more importantly, forecasts for future demand for next-generation chips. Any deviation from analysts' high expectations will undoubtedly trigger sharp volatility across major indices, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

📈 Macroeconomic data and monetary policy

Following Nvidia's report, all eyes will turn to Jackson Hole for one of the two most significant central banking conferences of the year. The event will run from Thursday to Saturday. On Friday morning local time (approximately 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM UK time), Kevin Warsh is set to speak. The market seeks greater clarity, with Warsh himself stating he will treat Jackson Hole as a "blank slate."

In terms of valuations, following the recent dovish correction, market bets on an autumn interest rate hike are rising (potentially in response to Scott Bessent's intervention in the debt market). An upward move in September is priced at approximately 40%, rising to just over 60% for October.

On Wednesday, alongside Nvidia's report, PCE inflation data will be released. Although this measure significantly lags CPI, it is historically favoured by Federal Reserve policymakers.

🪙 Precious metals

The decline in 30-year US Treasury yields resulting from the Treasury Department's intervention proved transitory. Yields currently stand at 5.24%, approximately 6 bps above Thursday's lows. The prevailing market distrust regarding the actions of the US administration is supporting precious metals.

• Gold is trading at approximately $4,650 per troy ounce, nearing a three-month high.
• Silver is currently priced at around $69 per troy ounce.

💱  Currencies

Figure 2: G10 Currency Performance (24.08.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026

Currency market volatility remains low this morning. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception, recording a 0.2% loss against the greenback. This follows the collapse of US-Canada negotiations, which resulted in the imposition of 50% tariffs on a large portion of Canadian exports. According to Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, retaliatory measures are to be expected.

₿ Cryptocurrencies

The cryptocurrency market lacks a clear direction today, mirroring the weekend's performance. We are observing a period of consolidation following the impressive gains seen last week. As with gold, the decline in confidence regarding US administration actions following the unsuccessful Treasury intervention in the debt market proved pivotal.

• The price of Bitcoin has risen by nearly 25% over the past seven days, currently oscillating around $74,500.
• Ethereum has seen a move of over 30%, currently approaching the key psychological barrier of $2,500.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB