Morning Wrap: Strait of Hormuz Finally Set to Open (15.06.2026)

The long-awaited day has arrived. The United States and Iran have reached an agreement that provides for a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and – most importantly from a market perspective – the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

🌍 Geopolitics

This information was first confirmed by Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif. We later received official confirmation from President Trump and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi. The official ceremony to sign the memorandum will take place this Friday in Switzerland.

• Immediate Ceasefire: Military operations are to cease immediately on all fronts, including Lebanon, according to Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Mediators from both sides are scheduled to hold a series of meetings this week to iron out the details of the agreement.
• Gradual Reopening: The Strait of Hormuz is to be opened gradually. For the duration of the ceasefire (60 days), Iran will waive transit fees for ships passing through. Simultaneously, Iranian forces will clear the area of naval mines deployed over the recent weeks.
• Nuclear Concessions: The minimum condition of the agreement is reportedly the dilution of uranium previously enriched by Iran. Its stockpiles currently exceed 9,000 kg – 440 kg of which is enriched to near-weapons-grade levels.

🛢️ Commodities

Crude oil prices have dropped by over 4% compared to Friday's close.

• A barrel of Brent now costs just under $84, while WTI is hovering around $81. These are the lowest levels since early March, when the US launched its initial strikes on Iran.

Gas prices are also trending downwards.

• A MWh of gas on the Dutch TTF exchange has fallen below $44, while NATGAS is oscillating around $3.06.

🏦 Monetary policy

Market pricing regarding the interest rate paths of major central banks is being heavily revised downwards.

• In the US, the market-implied probability of a rate hike before year-end now stands at just under 65%.
• In the Eurozone and the UK, the market's base-case scenario now prices in only one more upward move in 2026.

🪙 Bonds and Precious Metals

This dovish shift is leading to a decline in global bond yields by about 1–1.5%. 

• Consequently – and perhaps somewhat counterintuitively – amid the significant calming of sentiment in global markets, gold and silver prices are rising by over 2%.

🌏 Asia

Euphoria has taken over the stock markets.

• Asian indices are recording substantial gains, led by the KOSPI (+4.7%) and NIKKEI 225 (+4.7%).
• Futures contracts in Europe and the US are also flashing green. Ahead of the market open, the S&P 500 is up by 1.3%, and the DAX by 1.7%.

💱 Currencies

G10:

• The US dollar is recording significant weakness against other G10 currencies, including the euro (-0.4%).
• At the bottom of the ranking, we also find other commodity currencies: the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. The Japanese yen is also performing poorly.
• The biggest winner in the G10 space is the Swedish krona (+1.2% against the USD), which stands as one of the currencies most strongly correlated with broader market sentiment in the group.

Emerging Markets (EM):

• Unsurprisingly, several EM currencies are gaining against the dollar: the South African rand (+0.9%), Hungarian forint (+0.7%), South Korean won (+0.6%), and Indian rupee (+0.5%). These are the currencies of countries that were highly exposed to the prospect of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

₿ Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin ($65,800) and Ethereum ($1,720) are also capitalizing on the improved sentiment, both strengthening today by around 3%.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB