Morning Wrap: USA Halts Strikes – Oil Down, Stocks Up (03.08.2026)

We have just concluded a week rich in events on many levels. In recent days, we have witnessed a migration crisis in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, the collapse of the Situational Awareness investment fund, a historic rise in the Korean KOSPI index, one of the strongest interventions on the Japanese yen in a long time, and a renewed decline in oil prices, a consequence of Donald Trump withdrawing from plans for a massive attack on Iran.

🌍 Geopolitics

The US-Iran conflict remains in the spotlight, setting the path for oil and gas prices. The weekend brought several significant events in this regard.

On Saturday, we received an announcement of an attack that, according to Donald Trump's declarations, was to be "the largest since World War II". Ultimately, leaders of countries in the region reportedly convinced him that an agreement was nearing, which led to the cancellation of the military action.

Negotiations are also progressing between Iran and Oman regarding a new agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, OPEC+ decided to increase the oil production limit by 188 barrels per day.

🛢️ Commodities

All this results in a renewed decline in oil and gas prices.

• We currently have to pay a little over 83 dollars per barrel of Brent, which is about 5% less than a week ago. We see a decline of a similar scale for American WTI oil (currently below 80 dollars per barrel).
• After reaching their highest levels since 2023, gas prices on the Dutch TTF exchange are also heading down. NATGAS quotes remain stable (around 2.76 dollars per MMBtu).

📈 Equities

Lower energy commodity prices favour stock markets. Looking at futures contracts, we can note a 0.8% rise in the American Nasdaq 100 and 0.6% on the S&P 500. Futures contracts for European indices are also glowing green. Everything indicates that the German DAX will open about 1% up.

There is a bit less optimism in Asia. Both the Japanese Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) and the Chinese Shanghai SE (-0.8%) are losing. The Korean KOSPI is 5% in the red, dragged down by Samsung and SK Hynix (both losing about 8%).

It is worth remembering that on Friday, the KOSPI recorded a rise of over 15% – the strongest for a major stock index of a developed country in the 21st century. Despite this, it closed the month with about a 20% loss.

Today, we await results from Palantir, Snap, and Trump Media & Technology (all after the US stock market closes).

🧈 Precious Metals

US 10-year bond yields remain close to local highs (4.69%), which weighs on precious metal prices. However, the pressure is relatively small – both silver and gold are ending July at almost unchanged levels.

• We have to pay about $4070 for a troy ounce of gold, and $58.2 for silver.

📈 Macroeconomic Data and Monetary Policy

After a week packed with meetings of key central banks, we are in for a longer break from monetary policy. Only the Czech CNB will meet this week (Thursday) and it is unlikely to change the interest rate level.

In terms of macroeconomic data, attention will primarily be anchored on Friday's publication of the NFP report. Further data weaker than expected could strengthen the dovish repricing regarding the Fed's projected interest rate path.

In the first part of the week, we are primarily expecting the publication of PMI indicator revisions. As these are revisions, not preliminary readings, their potential to trigger volatility is rather small. An exception here was the RatingDog data from China, which is published a bit later than the rest – the first reading for July was released overnight.

China

• The July RatingDog PMI for the manufacturing sector surprised to the downside (50.9 versus a consensus of 52). It is worth recalling that in China, PMI indicators are published by two different institutions. S&P (RatingDog) gives us a better insight into the situation of small and medium-sized private enterprises, located mainly in the coastal belt of China. A large part of them is export-oriented. NBS, on the other hand, includes more large state-owned enterprises from the heavy industry and infrastructure sectors, whose production is directed to a much greater extent to the internal market.

💱 Currencies

The dollar is continuing the sell-off that began following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The EUR/USD pair remains well above the 1.15 level, its highest since mid-June.

However, the focus is primarily on the yen, due to the first coordinated intervention carried out jointly by the United States and Japan. According to estimates based on data published by the Bank of Japan, purchases of around 8.45 trillion yen (then equivalent to around 53 billion dollars) may have taken place, which would represent the BoJ’s largest single-day intervention in history.

The USDJPY pair fell by over 4% to around 156 – a level last seen in early May.