Morning Wrap: What’s next with the Strait of Hormuz, inflation and US interest rates? (15.07.2026)

We have just wrapped up a day abundant in events across almost every sector.

📉 First price decline in the US in 6 years

First, June inflation in the US caused a significant surprise.

• On a monthly basis, prices fell for the first time since the COVID-era 2020, dropping by as much as 0.4%.
• However, perhaps even more importantly, core inflation (2.6%), a measure excluding the most volatile energy and food prices, proved to be far lower than expected.

This naturally brought about a repricing of the interest rate path valued by the markets for the Fed.

• Due to the recent escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, investors began pricing in two hikes by the FOMC before the end of the year at the beginning of the week.
• Currently, the base scenario is again a single move upwards. The probability of a hike in September has fallen to approx. 68%.

🏛️ Warsh hawkish again

The correction would have been sharper were it not for further relatively hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh, who testified before Congress.

• He stated that "inflation is in some way a choice," taking full responsibility for price stability on the Fed.
• He assured that if monetary policy is appropriate, the high inflation of the last five years will become "a thing of the past."
• He clearly noted that the central bank will no longer accept inflation exceeding the 2% target.
• When asked about potential pressure from President Donald Trump (e.g., regarding rate cuts), he replied firmly that he intends "to simply do his job," and that within the central bank "there is no place for politics."
• He emphasized that the American labour market and economy are strong, which is heavily influenced by accelerating investments in AI infrastructure (data centres, hardware, software). However, he noted that the Fed is constantly monitoring this trend for its impact on inflation and the labour market.

🌍 Trump (again) withdraws from his decisions

Meanwhile, President Trump continued his chaotic communication regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

• Ultimately, he withdrew from the proposal to introduce a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait, which was intended to cover the costs of US protection of the route.
• After "highly productive talks" with leaders of Middle Eastern countries, this fee will be replaced by powerful trade agreements and investments that the Persian Gulf states will direct to the US.
• Trump announced on Truth Social that Arab investments will be the "largest in history" and will translate into a massive influx of factories, plants, and equipment to the US, which is expected to create millions of jobs.

How are the markets reacting to all this?

🛢️ Energy commodities

Investors seem not to be paying much attention to the messages coming from the American President. Although traffic in the strait has not completely stopped (some ships are passing through with transmitters turned off), it remains very heavily restricted compared to the state from the first days of July. According to Kpler data, the number of completed deliveries fell by more than half in the week ending 12 July.

• Brent and WTI oil prices are rising again. Currently, we have to pay approx. 85 dollars per barrel of Brent and 80 dollars for WTI.
• Gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is also becoming more expensive, to 54 dollars per MWh.

🧈 Precious metals

After a near 2% rise resulting from lower-than-expected inflation (US bond yields fell at the time), precious metals ultimately remained at levels almost unchanged from the opening. This is partly a matter of Kevin Warsh's relatively hawkish rhetoric, which limited the dovish repricing regarding Fed interest rates.

• For a troy ounce of gold we must pay approx. $4030, and for silver $58.4.

📈 Equities

The Asian markets are in the green again.

• The leader is the Korean KOSPI, which is rising today by approx. 7%. One of the driving forces behind the recorded gains is the renewed inflow of foreign and institutional investors. We are also observing a renewed improvement in sentiment towards semiconductor companies. SK Hynix and Samsung are gaining approx. 10%.
• The Hang Seng (+1.4%) and Nikkei (+1.4%) are also in the plus.
• The Shanghai SE Composite is lagging behind (-0.1%). This can be largely linked to worse economic data from China.

Another day full of publications of results from the largest American companies lies ahead of us. Yesterday, investors' attention was particularly drawn by IBM's data.

• The publication took place after very significant increases in the company's valuation, supported by the expansion of quantum computing and AI.
• Since May 2026, the company's shares have risen from ~215 USD to nearly 300.
• Revenue reached "only" 17.2 billion dollars (consensus: 17.8 billion).
• Sales growth of high-margin software fell, which investors perceive as a warning signal.
• The company's CEO, Arvind Krishna, pointed out that clients had started redirecting CAPEX spending towards memory.
• The share price fell by approx. 24%, the most since 1987.

Today, we are also awaiting a plethora of earnings.

• Before the stock market opens: Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock.
• After the close: United Airlines, BitMine Immersion, Kinder Morgan.

📈 Macroeconomic data

China

• GDP growth has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. The Chinese economy grew by 4.3% y/y in Q2. The crisis in the property market, weak domestic demand and a fall in investment (down 5.7% y/y in the first half of the year) are weighing on the economy. Exports, however, remain strong, particularly in the technology sector.

💱 Currencies

Yesterday’s inflation figures and the resulting repricing of expectations regarding the US interest rate path led to a significant sell-off in the dollar. In the evening, Kevin Warsh put the brakes on this somewhat.

• The EUR/USD pair ultimately closed Tuesday 0.3% higher and is continuing to rise today. It is currently trading around 1.142.
• All G10 currencies and almost all emerging market currencies have strengthened.
• Among the winners are the New Zealand dollar, supported by further hawkish statements from the RBNZ, and the Norwegian krone, which is benefiting from higher energy commodity prices.

₿ Cryptocurrencies

The improvement in sentiment following the lower US inflation reading has also affected cryptocurrencies.

• Bitcoin rose by over 4% yesterday and reached its highest level in three weeks (above 64,000).
• An even stronger rise was seen in Ethereum (+6.5%), which currently trades at around 1,875 dollars.