Nasdaq futures rally more than 3% 🚀

Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) surged 3.1%, driven by a massive capital rotation out of value and defensive sectors into technology, semiconductors, and AI.

Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Nasdaq 100 futures are staging a strong rebound off recent lows, with the daily RSI (14) lifting to 41.8. However, price action remains constrained below the key EMA100 (D1) near 28,276, which acts as immediate overhead resistance alongside the 28,400 level. Reclaiming this zone is essential to confirm a sustainable trend reversal. Notably, tech-heavy gains continue to outpace classical value stocks represented by DJIA futures (US30; pale blue), underscoring strong market divergence favoring tech outperformance.

Source: xStation5

What's behind the rebound?

• Sector Surge: The tech sector as a whole gained +4.8% within the Nasdaq. 

• Deep Rotation: However, a clear rotation took place even within mega-caps and traditional value names—capital flowed out of Apple, Google, Walmart, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Chevron and Honeywell to fund the tech buy.

• SaaS Momentum: Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) names gained strong traction, buoyed by standout cloud performance across major hyperscalers.

Source: XTB Research

Why: Earnings Revive the AI Trade

After weeks of sluggish momentum in the tech sector, particularly among semiconductor stocks (the PHXL Semiconductor Index is still down 21% from the previous month), a pair of blockbuster earnings reports helped revive the Nasdaq. Strong results from Microsoft, a key player in AI cloud computing, and Lam Research, a major supplier to ASML, provided a boost after the index fell below its 100-day exponential moving average for the first time since April.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Shares surged nearly 17% following Q4 results that beat expectations on both top line ($90.01B, +18% YoY) and EPS ($4.81). Growth was led by Azure cloud revenue accelerating 43% YoY (surpassing $100B annualized), while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached 30 million paid users. Investor sentiment was further boosted as full-year capex guidance was lowered to ~$175B from $190B due to accounting adjustments.

• Lam Research (LRCX): Shares rallied nearly 20% after the semiconductor equipment maker delivered beat-and-raise Q4 results, driven by a 30% YoY revenue surge to $6.72B and adj. EPS of $1.82. A 43% jump in customer support revenue ($2.47B) expanded margins, while Q1 adj. EPS guidance of $2.00–$2.30 easily cleared Wall Street estimates ($1.84).

Macro backup: dovish FOMC aftermath

Markets also benefited from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s ambiguous stance during yesterday’s post-rate decision press conference. Despite his firm language on inflation and emphasis on the importance of the 2% target, Warsh did not dissent from the decision, even though three FOMC members voted for a rate hike. This cast some doubt on the credibility of his hawkish stance.

The shift clearly eased markets’ expectations of aggressive rate hikes for the remainder of 2026, helping clear the way for a rebound in equities, which had recently come under pressure from rising Treasury yields.

The market-implied path for US interest rates shifted lower across the entire forecast horizon following Kevin Warsh’s press conference, with the first rate hike now fully priced in only for December 2026. Source: XTB Research, based on Bloomberg Finance LP data.