NATGAS gains nearly 1.7% during today's session and attempts to regain some ground after impact of Friday's futures contract rollover. The bullish price gap observed at the start of trading on Friday was later almost completely filled, creating an uncertainty over continuation of the recent dynamic upward movement.
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From a fundamental point of view, gas is now reacting to updated weather data indicating further heatwaves in the USA. On the other hand, the seasonal dependence of the annual cooling cycle in the US has returned to the 5-year average range, which may somewhat dampen the bullish momentum in the medium term (see chart below).
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
The demand side failed to break above the $3.00 per MMBTu area, which now constitutes the most important resistance zone on the chart. Seasonality patterns indicate that more gains on the US natural gas market may be looming, although their scale may weaken due to the return of the projected cooling cycle to the 5-year average range. Source: xStation5
