Night-time escalation with Iran. Oil close to $100 again

Last night, a series of strikes occurred in the Persian Gulf region. Oil is continuing yesterday’s gains amid concerns over an increasingly fragile ceasefire.

Around midday, Brent crude is trading near $98 per barrel. Precious metals such as gold and silver are posting slight declines.

Kuwait’s airport was attacked. Iranian drones hit the port area, and the airport has currently suspended flights.
- In addition to civilian airports, ballistic missiles were launched toward the Ali Al Salem base. CENTCOM states that the threat was intercepted.
Air defense also reported incursions from Iran into Bahrain’s airspace.
Representatives of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs say the attacks are in response to U.S. strikes on facilities on Qeshm Island and to an attack on an Iranian tanker in the Persian Gulf. Iran also indicates that “Kuwait and Bahrain also bear responsibility.”
In this context, comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio - often cited as a potential successor to Trump - may also be key:
- Iran’s support for terrorist organizations is “one of the red lines.”
- Iran may count on easing of financial sanctions, but it is expected to accept “strict and long-term restrictions.”
- At the same time, sanctions relief is not to take place in exchange for opening the strait.
- Rubio also noted that Iran’s response could come with a delay of up to five days.
Donald Trump announced on “Truth Social” that Iran “will not have nuclear weapons” and that a meeting with Iran’s leaders is possible - without providing details.

The stock market does not appear to be reacting. Shares of oil and defense companies remain around yesterday’s closing levels.

OIL (D1)

The price is back above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, thereby defending the long-term trend line (the middle red line). From a technical perspective, the next target for buyers is around $104 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level. To break the uptrend, it is crucial for sellers to push the price back below the above-mentioned trend line. Source: xStation5

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