Today, we had a rollover of the WTI crude oil futures contract. The loss is 4%, but only 1.5% is real movement on the price, and the rest is a futures contract roll. The powerful gap between the two closest contracts indicates theoretically high demand, but at the same time it is also a warning signal. Too much backwardation in the past has led to the initiation of a correction in the oil market.
- The fundamentals in the oil market are rather supportive: the recent strong decline in oil inventories, associated with the peak “driving season.” Attacks on tankers in the Middle East, or also the potential election of Trump, which is ambiguous for oil (potentially increasing US production, but possible geopolitical tensions with China).
- Nonetheless, there has been news of demand uncertainty from China, which may support a sell-off in the oil market. Most likely, however, the current sell-off is related to the desire to realize profits and exit long positions after reaching the extreme backwadration at $1.6 on the upcoming contracts.
Source: xStation5
