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Rally Ends: Crude oil is down over 1%, snapping a three-day rally and falling below $60/bbl due to technical resistance (25 and 50 SMAs).
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Supply Confidence: Market certainty about future supply has increased, driven by OPEC+'s production restoration and the expectation that the US will not impose stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports.
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Long-Term View: CBA forecasts Brent crude dropping below $60/bbl by 2026, implying WTI could fall below $57/bbl.
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Rally Ends: Crude oil is down over 1%, snapping a three-day rally and falling below $60/bbl due to technical resistance (25 and 50 SMAs).
-
Supply Confidence: Market certainty about future supply has increased, driven by OPEC+'s production restoration and the expectation that the US will not impose stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports.
-
Long-Term View: CBA forecasts Brent crude dropping below $60/bbl by 2026, implying WTI could fall below $57/bbl.
The price of crude oil is trading down by over 1% today, despite a positive start to the week. Oil is potentially concluding a three-day winning streak, falling back below the $60 per barrel mark and reacting to a supply zone linked to the 25- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).
Investors appear more confident regarding supply availability in the coming months, following OPEC+'s restoration of 2.6 million barrels of crude oil and its willingness to continue increasing production in subsequent months. Furthermore, the market is not overly concerned about a lack of supply availability from Russia. President Putin assures a continued commitment to stable oil supplies to India, while the US President expresses dissatisfaction with Ukraine’s reluctance to pursue peace with Russia under predefined terms. This suggests the United States does not intend to escalate sanctions against Russia in the near future.
The latest forecast from Australia's Commonwealth Bank (CBA) anticipates Brent crude prices falling below $60 per barrel in 2026, which would imply a valuation for WTI below at least the $57 per barrel level.
From a technical analysis perspective, attention should also be paid to the upward trend channel. Until its lower boundary is breached, it is difficult to anticipate a readiness for prices to decline towards the recent local lows near the $57.5 per barrel level.
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