12:43 PM · 9 May 2024

Pound reverses initial declines after Bailey's comments

Pound reverses initial declines after the governor Bailey said, that that the bank is not yet at the point to cut the base rate

Other comments: 

  • Inflationary shocks around the world are fading
  • We are not yet at a point where we could decide to cut
  • Wages are higher than expected, inflation in services remains excessively high. At the same time, these data should not prevail
  • A rate cut in June is possible, but not planned at this point
  • More data will make it possible to assess what's next for inflation
  • We have 2 more inflation readings before the June decision

Like the statement, Bailey opens the door for a possible interest rate cut. On the other hand, it does not give a sure signal as to June. The market now gives 55% for a cut in June, which is a slight increase compared to the combined probability earlier for today's and June's decision. GBPUSD is back to where it was before the decision. 

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