Riksbank published minutes of January 31, 2024 monetary policy meeting today at 8:30 am GMT. Interest rates were left unchanged at that meeting, with the main policy rate staying at 4.00%. Document showed that Riksbank members are not in favor of delivering quick rate cuts, and that they prefer to wait to gain more confidence that it would be the right move. Key comments from Riksbank minutes can be found below.
Jansson
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- Cut in March is neither impossible nor probable
- First cut in May or June more realistic
- Also can't rule out the first cut will be after summer
- Other central banks have significant bearing on timing of cuts
Thedeen
- Policy needs to be contractionary for some time
- Underlying inflation has fallen more than expected
- Inflation dynamic is now going in desired direction
- Clear signs we may be on way into new policy phase
- Still risk of setbacks with regard to inflation
- Another risk for inflation is development of krona
Bunge
- Tighter monetary policy still necessary
- Rate cut in H1 2024 require continued favorable signs
- Risks of inflation becoming entrenched have declined
- Need to focus on exchange rate
Breman
- Contractionary policy needed to stabilize inflation
- Any further krona weakening may complicate price goal
- Rate will probably be cut sooner than seen in November
- Should keep policy rate unchanged for some time
A number of comments made suggested that it is better not to rush rate cuts, and it has provided some support for the Swedish krona. EURSEK was testing the 200-hour moving average in the 11.31 area (purple line), when minutes were released, but has pulled back following the release.
Source: xStation5
