Shift in Europe's PMIs - Strong manufacturing, services decline

24.03.2026 – Summary of PMI indicators from Europe (March)

• France:
  • Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (Expected: 49.5; Previous: 50.1)
  • Services PMI: 48.3 (Expected: 49.0; Previous: 49.6)
• Germany:
  • Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 (Expected: 49.4; Previous: 50.9)
  • Services PMI: 51.2 (Expected: 52.0; Previous: 53.5)
• Eurozone:
  • Manufacturing PMI: 51.4 (Expected: 49.4; Previous: 50.8)
  • Services PMI: 50.1 (Expected: 50.9; Previous: 51.9)

Based on the published data, a clear reversal of the trend that dominated in recent months can be observed. In the second half of 2025, rising services PMI readings, often above expectations, were the norm. At the same time, manufacturing readings pointed to a moderate yet persistent stagnation in the sector.

This shift in trends may have several possible explanations. The improvement in manufacturing could result from an inflow of orders from the defence and infrastructure sectors. In recent quarters, the European Union has placed strong emphasis on expanding armed forces and renovating/expanding infrastructure. These are strictly industrial initiatives, which is reflected in the indicators.

On the other hand, it cannot be denied that unemployment remains elevated compared with recent years. Unemployment rates are still moderate, but weakness in the labour market may be starting to weigh on consumption. However, what may be, and likely is, a much more significant negative factor for services is the difficult situation of airlines. High fuel costs caused by the conflict in Iran are sharply increasing air ticket prices, which will have a material, though still hard to quantify, impact on tourism and services.