SUGAR erases gains on India potentially allowing exports this year 📉

Sugar futures extend drop by another 1% as India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, may allow sugar exports in the 2025–26 season starting in October, amid signs of a strong cane harvest. 

Favorable weather, expanded acreage in key states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, and strong monsoon rains have raised expectations of a 19% jump in production, according to industry sources. With domestic consumption expected to rise only slightly, the country could see a surplus.

If permitted, exports from India could pressure global sugar prices further, with New York futures already trading near four-year lows. India had curbed exports in recent years due to weather-related production issues but allowed limited shipments this season. The government is also balancing its clean fuel strategy by diverting more sugar to ethanol—estimated at 4 million tons for 2025–26, up from 3.2 million tons this year.

SUGAR contract has returned below both 10- and 30-day exponential moving averages (yellow and light purple respectively) following the release of the report on a potential quotas relief. The drop settled currently at 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Source: xStation5