The coup in Venezuela boosts Europe and local defense stocks⚔️

The initial market reactions following the weekend events in Venezuela may come as something of a surprise. At the beginning of the day, crude oil lost value, but very little, and then regained ground compared to Friday's closing prices, which may mean that the market actually sees a greater chance of increased activity in Venezuelan oil fields and, consequently, an increase in global supply of the commodity, but in the very long term. It should be remembered that Venezuela mainly has heavy, almost bituminous crude oil, which is completely different from that extracted in Saudi Arabia, for example. It is expensive to extract and requires advanced refining technology to be transported by pipeline to market. The slight declines indicate that the market sees an opportunity for a slow and long-term development of this industry in Venezuela with the help of US capital, but it will still take a long time for this to actually happen.

On the stock market, however, sentiment is very good, with European trading floors gaining an average of 0.65% (Euro Stoxx 50). The mining and technology sectors are performing particularly well, while we are seeing weakness in the fuel market, where the share prices of major companies are predominantly falling. We are waiting for the reaction of the US markets at 3:30 p.m.

The German DAX (on the cash market) is currently gaining nearly 0.65%, while the French CAC40 is up 0.12% and the British FTSE100 is up 0.24%. The German stock market is primarily driven by the rising value of Rheinmetall (RHM.DE) shares.

Current quotes for major contracts. Source: xStation

Current volatility observed on the broader European market. Source: xStation

At the beginning of the week, the DAX is gaining dynamically and breaking above the main upper limit of the broad consolidation zone that limited the DE40 in 2025. If today's session closes the upper body of the intraday candle above this zone, it could mean that the previous barrier has been broken and the DE40 is paving the way for further gains towards the ATH. However, a pullback below this structure may resemble the earlier behavior of the 2025 contract, when stronger pullbacks began from these levels. Technically, however, looking at the 50- and 100-day EMAs, which remain below the DE40 quotations, the long-term uptrend remains unshaken. Source: xStation

Company news:

ASML (ASML.NL) is seeing strong growth today, with the company's shares rising by as much as 4.5% to a record high after Bernstein analysts raised their recommendation to "outperform" from "market perform," pointing to the underestimated growth potential in the DRAM memory segment. Bernstein believes that although many investors associate ASML's growth mainly with logic chip manufacturers (CPU, GPU), the upcoming investment cycle in DRAM and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) could become a strong growth driver for the company in 2026-2027, which analysts describe as "big years for EUV technology." Bernstein raised its target price for ASML from €800 to €1,300. The company will publish its quarterly results on January 28 before the market opens.

As in Asia, European defense companies are also gaining value following the US attacks on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Share price increases in the defense sector are a typical market reaction at times of heightened geopolitical tensions, and the situation in South America is currently acting as a strong demand stimulus for companies linked to the military industry.

Source: xStation

Airbus (AIR.DE) exceeded its delivery target for 2025, delivering 793 aircraft against a revised forecast of around 790, according to Bloomberg sources. This result was achieved thanks to an intensification of deliveries in the last days of the year, although the data is preliminary and may be subject to minor adjustments. In December, Airbus lowered its previous delivery plan from approximately 820 aircraft after problems with the A320 model, including the need for extensive software updates and additional inspections of the fuselage skin, which did not meet technical standards. The manufacturer will publish data on the final number of deliveries and orders on January 12 after the stock markets close. The company's shares are up 2.2% today.