Florida will be a key state for the candidate to win the election. Of course it is possible to win the election without Florida, although the statistics speak for themselves ...
Continuously since 1992, every candidate who won in Florida has won the election. More importantly for Trump, no Republican candidate has won the election without Florida within the last 100 years. What are the polls like? It turns out that Biden has the advantage, although very modest, quietly fitting inside the statistical error.
Continuously since 1992, every candidate who won in Florida has won the election. More importantly for Trump, no Republican candidate has won the election without Florida within the last 100 years. What are the polls like? It turns out that Biden has the advantage, although very modest, quietly fitting inside the statistical error.
Biden's advantage in Florida just before the election seemed minimal. Source: Bloomber, rcp
Fivethirtyeight analysts indicate that if Biden wins in Florida, the probability of him winning the election will be 95%. In turn, if he loses the elections there, the probability of winning the entire election will drop to 40%. Despite the fact that Pennsylvania will better reflect the mood of the public in other swing states, Florida will show the results first. Most of the results should be available as early as 12:00 AM GMT, while some polling stations will be open until 1:00 AM GMT.
Pennsylvania seems to be very important, but Florida will be the first to publish its results. If Trump wins in Florida and Pennsylvania, it will greatly increase his probability of winning. Source: fivethiryyeight.com
It is worth noting that Florida is currently Trump's "home" state. He changed his residence to Palm Beach County in 2019. Will Florida employers blame Trump for shutting down their businesses? From March about 100 thousand. of them had to suspend their activities. As of March, 3.5 million Florida citizens have applied for unemployment benefits.
