Three markets to watch next week: US100, GBPUSD, GOLD (15.05.2026)

The primary catalyst of recent days was the release of elevated US inflation data, which prompted a definitive shift in investor sentiment regarding the trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s visit to China failed to yield a significant breakthrough, and the geopolitical impasse in the Middle East remains unresolved. The coming week promises to be particularly compelling, dominated by Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report. In tandem, markets will digest UK inflation figures and the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. Investors will also monitor preliminary PMI readings across Europe and the US. Against this backdrop, the US100 (Nasdaq 100 fut.), GBPUSD, and Gold warrant particular attention.

US100 (Nasdaq 100 fut.)

Robust earnings from American Big Tech and optimistic forward guidance have pushed US indices to fresh record highs on an almost daily basis. The market now faces an ultimate litmus test in the form of Nvidia's financial results. Consensus estimates point to accelerating revenue growth, projected to exceed $78bn, though markets are quietly positioning for a figure north of $80bn. GAAP earnings per share are expected at $1.75, representing a year-on-year surge of over 100%. While these figures are critical, investors will scrutinise the report for guidance on new product lines—specifically the Vera Rubin chips. These are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce token-generation costs for AI model queries.

GBPUSD

The US dollar has strengthened broadly following hotter-than-expected inflation prints. This week, attention shifts to UK inflation data, which may similarly surprise to the upside given the country’s history of persistent price dynamics. Beyond Wednesday’s CPI release, Tuesday brings the labour market report, followed by preliminary PMI readings (covering both the UK and US) on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday. Consequently, sterling is primed for heightened volatility. Currently, markets are not pricing in a high probability of a Bank of England rate hike in June; however, such a move is fully anticipated by July.

Gold (GOLD)

As hawkish expectations for US interest rates resurface—with the market now seeing a significant chance of one further hike by year-end—gold has responded with a sharp leg down. The precious metal is currently undergoing a correction of more than $200. In this context, the publication of the Fed minutes is the pivotal event for bullion. Although the last Federal Reserve meeting was held under the leadership of Jerome Powell, the minutes will reveal the prevailing sentiment among the broader Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Given that internal dissent is at its highest level since the 1990s, the FOMC minutes may once again become a primary driver of volatility, even as investors look ahead to Kevin Warsh’s inaugural appearance as Fed Chair.

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Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of Research Department at XTB