US ADP employment below estimates! EURUSD extends gains 📈

US ADP Employment Change Actual 44k (Forecast 65k, Previous 98k, Revised 95k)

The private jobs report from ADP for July came in well below estiamtes, pointing to the slowest job creation in the US since February, which was marked by the start of the war in Iran.

Education and Healthcare are still the backbone of the report, adding 36,000 new jobs. On the other end, we have a significant drop in the hospitality services (-11,000), likely due to post-World Cap normalisation and implied end of temporary contracts. Trade and transportation is also down on higher fuel costs.

Panel 1. ADP Employment change in selected Goods sectors.

Source: ADP

Panel 2. ADP Employment change in selected Services sectors.

Source: ADP

EURUSD reacts

EURUSD extended early tradining gains, eying the most recent, 2-month high near 1,1560. The dollar weakness is additionally supported by the most recent comments from Fed Minneapolis president, Neel Kashkari, who stated that it's the time to start slowly moving interest rates up, but is not calling for drastic rate hikes.

Kashkari was one of the three descents who opted for a 25 bp hike during the last FOMC. His "soft call" falls short of previously hawkish market expectations and might be giving an impression that Fed risks falling behind the curve with monetary tightening.

Source: xStation5

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