US home sales fall - will timber prices drop at year-end?

3:44 PM 22 April 2021

The data on home sales in the US secondary market showed a decline to 6.01m against the previous reading at 6.24m and below analysts' expectations of 6.19m. The dynamics of the decline amounted to 3.7% MoM and followed a decline in February at 6.3% MoM. The data is very interesting, as March is the month in which there was a significant recovery in the United States. On the other hand, the payment of one-time checks for a small amount is unlikely to affect Americans' decisions to buy houses. As you one can see, real estate inflation can take its toll on Americans.

Recent data indicate a potential overheating of the US housing market. On the other hand, there are opinions that the real demand for real estate will be visible in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, US timber prices are soaring and currently premium contract prices over the spot price are reaching astronomical levels of over $ 1000 per contract. Interestingly, in 2018 premium was just over $ 400 at its peak. As one can see, the prices may simply be too high.

Wood prices in the US are soaring. It will also affect further inflation prospects in the US. Source: Bloomberg

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