The NFIB Business Optimism Index (US small businesses survey) came in at 90.7 versus 90.5 forecast and 90.8 previously
Philip Jefferson of the Fed
- Uncertainty about the sustainability of inflation may warrant a stronger Fed policy response
- Measures of economic uncertainty, particularly with regard to inflation, remain elevated.
- Decisions made under uncertainty may differ from those optimal under certainty.
Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America
- Investors are overweight equities for the first time since April 2022.
- Bonds also overweight by the most since the 2008 global financial crisis
- 61% of investors expect lower bond yields in 12 months (a historical record for expected declines).
- 74% anticipate a soft landing or no hard landing, and 76% of investors say the Fed has completed its interest rate hike cycle.
- Investors remain cautious about the macro outlook, but are looking optimistically at the trajectory of interest rates.
The overall picture of the FMS survey is as follows - the Fed has completed the cycle and will begin to cut interest rates in 2024, which will positively affect both heavily oversold bond prices (and make yields fall sharply). Since there will be no hard landing of the economy, companies will benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing policy and stocks will become, next to bonds, its positive beneficiaries. At the same time, investors take into account the fact that the macro situation may not turn out to be so optimistic, but the Fed's tools will minimize possible negative effects resulting from the tightening.
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Futures contracts on 10 year US treasuries bonds (TNOTE) are gaining slighlty today. Bulls are trying to hold a support at 38,2 Fibo level od upward wave from the midle of October. Źródło: xStation5
