US OPEN: Debt and the Strait of Hormuz fuel growing concerns.

The start of the first session of the week has not managed to impose a clear direction on prices. Futures on the main Wall Street indices are posting small losses at the open, limited to around 0.2%.

• With no major macroeconomic catalysts and no earnings releases from large companies, the market is once again focusing on the uncertain situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Despite announcements from the US President and the Treasury Secretary, no agreement has been reached yet, and concrete details are close to nonexistent.
  • Investor anxiety and impatience are clearly visible in the commodities market. Brent is back above $85, and natural gas in Europe is approaching EUR 60.
  • According to fragmentary information from sources including Reuters, the Iranian side is reluctant to back down from its demands regarding transfer fees.

• Among the MAG7 gainers, Alphabet is currently leading, supported in part by purchases from Berkshire. Microsoft and Apple are lagging.
• SpaceX is recovering, up 3%, partly supported by optimism about Rocket Lab’s (still unpublished) results.

Company news:

• Apple (AAPL.US): The company is down about 1% after receiving a negative recommendation from an investment bank. In their assessment, analysts pointed mainly to pressure on margins/pricing of new iPhones.
• Intel (INTC.US): The US chipmaker is down as much as 3% at the open after announcing a new share offering to fund its investments. The size of the offering is as high as USD 15 billion.
• Monday.com (MNDY.US): The software provider is down as much as 9% after its earnings release. Despite a clear beat versus market consensus (Revenue: $364.6m vs $355m; EPS: $1.48 vs $1.11), disappointing guidance clearly worried shareholders.
• HP (HPQ.US): The stock is up about 6% after receiving positive recommendations from an investment firm. In the publication, analysts point to additional demand boosted by AI investments.
• Barrick Mining (B.US): The mining conglomerate is down about 4% after signing a settlement with Newmont Corp regarding their Nevada joint venture.

Technical analysis US100 (D1)

Price is approaching resistance around 30,100 points. Upward momentum has clearly weakened after a sharp rebound from local lows around 27,700 points, but buyers still hold the initiative. In addition to breaking above the descending channel, a short-term bullish signal is also the EMA25 moving back above EMA50. The MACD signal line and normalized RSI (14) should support buyers in the coming days, with a target of 32,000 points. A key requirement for maintaining short-term upside momentum is defending the 30,000 to 29,900 area. Source: xStation5

Macroeconomic data:

• One hour before the close of Wall Street trading, Beth M. Hammack will begin her conference. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland will speak about monetary policy. Hammack strongly argues for placing greater emphasis on inflation and the inflation target; she is one of the leading “hawks” in the Fed, and the market expects her to continue this narrative in her conference.