US OPEN: Nasdaq hits 1-month low! Geopolitics bring AI trade down!

US equity futures point to a subdued final session of the week as investors navigate geopolitical headwinds, rising inflation expectations and mounting worries over crowded AI capex positioning. Despite individual earnings bright spots like Intel, growing skepticism persists regarding whether current market valuations adequately reflect underlying macro risks.

Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are leading losses today (-1.4%) and are currently testing major support in the form of a 100-day exponential moving average. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures are only modestly down compared to the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US500: +0.25%, US2000: +0.2%), while the resilience of Dow Jones futures (US30: +0.1%) underline the rotation of the capital towards more traditional companies.

Volatility in the Nasdaq 100 sectors, with tech being the major loser. Source: XTB Research

At the same time, positioning concerns are intensifying as extremely low correlation levels prompt the unwinding of volatility dispersion trades. Coupled with new US tariffs taking effect on 60 economies, market participants remain cautious about potential macro shocks amid historically thin risk premia.

Top 10 winners and losers in the Nasdaq 100. AI infrastructure companies are in the red the most. Source: xStation5

Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq Futures)

Nasdaq 100 futures are testing a critical technical junction around 28,320, hovering directly on the 100-day EMA (28,389) and local horizontal support at 28,409. The index faces persistent selling pressure after breaking below its 10-day EMA (29,050) and 30-day EMA (29,394).

A sustained breakdown below this key support zone could trigger deeper losses toward lower structural levels. However, if bulls defend this long-term moving average, a bounce could target initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 28,966. With the RSI at 38.7, downside momentum dominates, though oversold territory approaches.

Source: xStation5

Company News: 

• Oracle (ORCL): Shares gained 2.3% in extended trading after securing a 10-year US Department of Defense contract worth $3.31 billion over the first five years, and up to $6.99 billion if options are exercised. The agreement covers on-premises software, SaaS applications, and professional services across defense organizations. However, shares are currently down 3.2%.

• Verizon (VZ): Shares fell 1.2% premarket despite a Q2 EPS beat ($1.30 vs. $1.27 est.) and raising its full-year EPS forecast to $4.99–$5.04. Revenue missed estimates at $34.3 billion, but free cash flow jumped 24.4% to $6.4 billion, prompting an increase in full-year buybacks up to $4.5 billion. However, shares are currently up 2.7%.

• Intel (INTC): Shares rose over 3% premarket after forecasting Q3 revenue of $15.8B–$16.8B, well above Wall Street estimates, driven by AI data center CPU demand. Q2 revenue rose 25% y/y to $16.1 billion, while adjusted EPS hit $0.42. Full-year capex is set at approximately $20 billion. However, shares are currently down 3%.

• American Express (AXP): Shares dropped over 3% premarket as Q2 revenue ($19.64 billion) and net card fees ($2.86 billion) slightly missed expectations, despite an EPS beat of $4.53. AmEx raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 10%, citing strong momentum in its U.S. Consumer Platinum portfolio and Gen-Z/Millennial adoption. The decline exacerbated and shares are currently losing 5.8%

• AMD (AMD): Shares rose 1% in premarket trading as Wall Street analysts raised price targets following a product event showcasing new AI products. Analysts cited strong long-term upside in AMD's GPU/CPU platforms, the scheduled launch of its Helios AI rack system, and multi-gigawatt partnership deals. However, share are currently down 2%.