US OPEN: The market calms down ahead of earnings season

The final session of a turbulent week on Wall Street begins with a sense of calm and cautious optimism. Since the local low on March 31, the major US indices have already recovered about 9%, returning to levels seen before the start of the war in Iran, despite the lack of solid prospects for peace in the region. Today, most futures contracts on the main indices are hovering around opening levels, limiting gains to about 0.2%.

Even though oil prices remain close to the $100-per-barrel level, the market appears to be shifting its focus back toward the technology sector and AI.

At the same time, next week marks the official start of another earnings season. The financial sector will be first to report, on Monday we will see results from Goldman Sachs and FB Financial.

Macroeconomic data

The BLS released US (March) inflation data. In line with market expectations, price growth accelerated noticeably amid the Iran conflict, but the reading ultimately came in slightly below the market consensus. A clear difference can also be observed between headline and core inflation, indicating which consumption categories are the main contributors to rising prices.

• CPI inflation (YoY): 3.3% (expected: 3.4%; previous: 2.4%)
• Core CPI inflation (YoY): 2.6% (expected: 2.7%; previous: 2.5%)

US100 (D1)

The chart shows a fast and decisive return of buyer control after rebounding from the 23,000-point level. EMA moving averages are returning to bullish momentum, and the MACD is sending a clear bullish signal. The base-case scenario appears to be a test of 26,000 points; however, bulls should be mindful of a rising RSI. Source: xStation5

Company news

• CoreWeave (CRWV.US): The cloud infrastructure operator announced a partnership with Anthropic. One of the leading AI model developers is expected to lease computing power from the company. Shares are up about 3%.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE.US): The company’s CEO spoke about strong demand for its solutions, driven by AI-related demand. The stock is up more than 2%.
• Nike (NKE.US): The apparel conglomerate received a negative recommendation from an investment firm. Shares are down about 1%.
• Palantir (PLTR.US): One of the leading AI solution providers for governments and large companies is posting another significant decline. The stock is falling mainly amid concerns about competition from Anthropic’s solutions.
• Organon (OGN.US): The pharmaceutical company is up more than 20% after Economic Times published an article reporting that Sun Pharmaceutical may acquire the company for $12 billion.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) and Palo Alto (PANW.US): Both are falling again amid concerns about the capabilities of Anthropic’s “Claude Mythos” model.