US Open: Time for a pullback?

Following in the footsteps of European equity indices, which are trading lower today, the S&P 500 (-0.5%) and the NASDAQ Composite (-0.7%) opened in the red. This weakness can be partly attributed to the renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, although pre-market activity did not suggest that investor sentiment had significantly deteriorated because of it.

In recent hours, an airport in Kuwait was attacked, and Bahrain’s airspace was also breached. These actions reportedly are a retaliation for US strikes. The probability of both sides reaching an agreement that would lead to a permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as early as June is declining; markets currently assign roughly a 20% chance of success to such a scenario. This is triggering another surge in crude prices, with WTI currently trading just above $96 per barrel – up 10% since the start of the week.

Meanwhile, a string of companies within the broader AI sector continue their winning streak. Notable outperformers include Intel (+5.9%), Marvell (+4.4%), Iren (+3.2%), and AMD (+1.7%). Marvell’s stock price has now soared by over 35% compared to Tuesday's open. This rally is driven in part by highly complimentary remarks from Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang. Taking the stage in Taipei alongside Marvell's chief executive, Huang effectively anointed the company as the next one whose valuation will reach one trillion dollars.

Figure 1: Winners and Losers on the Nasdaq 100 (03.06.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 03.06.2026

Even so, the technology sector appears to be weighing on the broader indices today.

Figure 2: Sector Performance on the Nasdaq 100 (03.06.2026)

Source: XTB Research, 03.06.2026

This does not change the fact that positive sentiment surrounding AI development has been more than just a tailwind for spectacular gains in the US market this year – it has essentially been their sole driver. According to an analysis by Goldman Sachs, when excluding companies from the broader AI ecosystem, the S&P 500 is currently flat relative to the beginning of the year. With them included, it is experiencing one of its most fruitful periods in decades.

Adding fuel to the overheated markets is the SpaceX IPO, which has become a dominant topic of online debate in recent days. The investor roadshow kicks off this week, with the official trading debut scheduled for June 12. The company aims to raise approximately $74 billion from the market, targeting a staggering total valuation of $1.75 trillion. There is little doubt today that this will be the largest IPO in history. According to recent reports, SpaceX plans to set the offer price at $135 per share, with as much as 30% of the total share pool earmarked for retail investors.

Technical Analysis

US100 (D1)

Source: xStation, 03.06.2026

he price continues to move within a steep, dynamic ascending channel established after bouncing off the late-March 2026 lows. After reaching fresh all-time highs, the price is currently testing the lower boundary of this channel, attempting to hold this crucial trendline. The RSI (14) remains at an elevated 79.1 points, confirming a heavily overbought market condition and justifying a potential cooling of sentiment. While the medium-term structure remains inherently bullish, the current pressure on the lower band of the channel, combined with the significant distance between the price and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA 50, around 28,105 pts), increases the risk of a deeper correction. If the lower boundary of the channel is decisively broken and the market enters a broader profit-taking phase, the first key reference point and target support will be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (around 28,645 pts).

News from companies

• Marvell Technology (MRVL.US): The company’s shares skyrocketed after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested at a conference in Taiwan that Marvell could become "the next trillion-dollar company." Nvidia works closely with Marvell on designing network infrastructure for AI.
• GameStop (GME.US): The stock is trading nearly 8% higher today following the announcement of very strong Q1 results. Net sales increased by over $100 million to $835 million, heavily driven by trading cards, toys, and collectibles, which accounted for 42% of revenue and posted substantial year-over-year growth.
• GitLab (GTLB.US): The market reaction to GitLab’s earnings was less favorable (-5.9%). The company announced a drastic restructuring program dubbed "Act Two." The firm is laying off approximately 350 people, or 14% of its global workforce, and pulling out of operations in 22 countries. CEO Bill Staples explained the move as a transition into the "era of AI agents."

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB