US OPEN: Wall Street awaits FOMC minutes

US shares have made a soft start to the turn of the year. Part of the recent decline can be attributed to tax-loss harvesting and year-end positioning. Given that the US and Canada transitioned to a T+1 settlement cycle in 2024, investors seeking to lock in gains or losses for the 2025 tax year were required to execute trades by Monday or during today’s session. Notably, while Wall Street will observe normal trading hours on New Year’s Eve, many European markets will remain closed or operate on a shortened schedule.

At 7 pm GMT, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, during which officials opted for another rate cut. However, that decision was not unanimous, reflecting a fracturing consensus within the committee. Should the minutes signal a readiness to maintain a dovish trajectory, the coming days could see a continuation of the "Santa Claus Rally," which historically extends through the first two weeks of January.

Technical Outlook

US500 futures continue to trend lower, despite a partial recovery from yesterday’s intraday lows. Investors remain sidelined ahead of the FOMC release. The US500 is currently trading just below the 6,950-point mark, remaining above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the post-roll bullish leg. If profit-taking persists following a robust 2025, a breach of current support could see the index slide toward 6,888 points, a level aligned with the 50.0% retracement and the primary ascending trendline.

Corporate News

Meta Platforms (META.US): The Facebook parent has announced the acquisition of Singapore-based AI startup Manus for approximately $2bn. Manus specializes in AI agents designed to automate tasks such as CV screening, travel planning, and basic equity research. Meta shares rose 0.1% at the open; the stock has gained 12.5% year-to-date.

Tesla (TSLA.US): The electric vehicle maker released complex delivery estimates for the current quarter that fell short of the Bloomberg consensus. Tesla expects to deliver 422,850 vehicles in Q4, representing a 15% year-on-year decline, compared to the 10% drop anticipated by analysts. Despite the downbeat forecast, shares rose 0.65%, trading near record highs. The stock has appreciated by nearly 14% this year.

Precious Metals Miners: A notable recovery is underway in the mining sector following the extreme sell-off in gold and silver during the week’s opening session. Barrick Gold (B.US) and Newmont (NEM.US) both gained approximately 2%. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) is also seeing bids, supported by the longest winning streak in the copper market since 2017.