🚨US100 on the verge of a breakout

The U.S. tech sector found itself at the epicenter of an unprecedented corporate upheaval that forced institutional investors to sharply reassess risk premiums on Wall Street. The alleged proposal to vote on removing Jensen Huang as Nvidia’s CEO—a fallout from an escalating romantic scandal—has struck at the very foundation of the AI bull market. By mid-2026, Nvidia had supplied the lion’s share of global AI computing power (nearly 18 million H100 chip equivalents out of just under 27 million installed worldwide), leaving Google, AMD, and Amazon in the dust. To the financial markets, Huang is not merely a CEO—he is the architect of an ecosystem on which the trillion-dollar capital expenditure (CapEx) budgets of hyperscalers depend. The prospect of a leadership vacuum in Santa Clara triggered an immediate wave of position reductions in semiconductor stocks, dragging down the entire Nasdaq 100 index.

However, the scale of the market crash is particularly evident in the index’s fundamentals and multiples. The price-to-forward-earnings ratio plummeted in November 2026 to 19.2x. This represents a break below the lower band of two standard deviations ( -2 Std Dev at 19.3x) relative to the long-term average for 2019–2026 of 24.9x. From a historical perspective, such a deep valuation discount was last seen only during the pandemic crash in March 2020  and at the bottom of the bear market in the fall of 2022. The market has, in effect, already priced in the scenario of decision-making paralysis at Nvidia, driving the valuations of leading tech companies down to levels that are oversold in terms of price-to-earnings multiples and relative valuations. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Financial LP

From a technical analysis perspective on the daily timeframe (US100, D1), the November panic led to a break below the uptrend line and a decline in prices all the way to a local low of 26,340.6 points. The sell-off only slowed after the RSI (14) indicator fell into oversold territory, from which demand triggered a rapid V-shaped rebound, pulling the contract back toward the 28,291-point level (currently, the RSI is rebounding to 44.29). The key battle is now taking place at the 200-day EMA (28,339.3 points) , which the bulls may attempt to reclaim. A sustained break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the resistance convergence zone at 29,237–29,500 points, where the 100-period EMA (29,237.2 points) and the main node of the volume profile (Point of Control – POC). Conversely, a rejection of the price from below the 200-period EMA following a negative outcome of the Nvidia vote would hypothetically threaten a return to the support zone at 27,300 points, and in an extreme, possible scenario—a retest of the low at 26,340 points.