🚩US500 loses ahead of the US open, VIX surges 6%

S&P 500 futures (US500) are posting clear losses ahead of the US market open, with equity sentiment remaining subdued amid rising energy prices, particularly oil. Markets were also weighed down by reports of negotiations between China and Iran, during which China reportedly pushed strongly for ensuring fully unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors are concerned that the conflict in the Middle East may be prolonged, while the escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf continues to intensify. The US Dollar Index is already approaching the 100 level, recovering multi-month losses against a basket of major currencies, while rising bond yields are adding further pressure on risk assets.
In the short term, US500 may continue to respect the lower boundary of the trendline, though a break below 6800 points could trigger pressure for a retest of local lows near 6720 points. The RSI indicator on the short-term 5-minute interval has once again fallen close to 30, signaling oversold conditions.
At 12:30 AM GMT, key US macroeconomic data will be released, including retail sales and the NFP labor market report. A “hot” reading could further support the dollar and bond yields, while slightly weaker or in-line data could potentially ease some inflation concerns. The most risky scenario appears to be a reading above expectations or significantly below forecasts, as the latter could increase concerns about a potential recession.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose three basis points to almost 4.2% and this surge is on track for its largest weekly increase since April. S&P 500 futures declined 0.5%. Iran launched a lot of missiles and drones against several Gulf countries overnight. Israel and United States continued to launch airstrikes on Iran. Residents in Dubai received missile alarms on Friday, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain also claimed strikes.

US500, VIX (M5 interval)

Source: xStation5

The VIX index has reached local highs after briefly dipping below 23 during overnight trading. Demand for hedging against further downside remains strong, as the market assesses whether current valuation levels can be sustained in a scenario of rising yields and renewed inflationary pressure.

Source: xStation5

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