US500: US stocks lose momentum despite the strongest S&P 500 revenue growth in 3 years 📊

US500 is trying to stabilize after recent declines, making it a good moment to take stock of the Q4 2025 earnings season. US corporates are accelerating again, not only in profits but also in top-line growth. From a fundamentals perspective, revenue momentum is at least as important as earnings, because it speaks directly to underlying demand rather than cost or margin effects. The S&P 500’s blended revenue growth rate for Q4 currently stands at 9% y/y, the strongest in three years. If this holds through the end of reporting season, it would mark the index’s highest revenue growth since Q3 2022 (11.0%). Importantly, revenue growth expectations have been revised higher throughout the season.

• 9% y/y: current S&P 500 blended revenue growth for Q4

• 7.8%: estimate as of December 31, 2025

• 6.5%: estimate as of September 30, 2025

• 10 out of 11 sectors are reporting y/y revenue growth

• Three sectors are posting double-digit revenue growth: Information Technology, Communication Services, Health Care

The biggest contribution comes from four sectors.

Information Technology: Revenue growth increased to 20.6% from 17.9%

Key positive surprises:

• Apple: $143.76bn vs $138.39bn expected

• Super Micro Computer: $12.68bn vs $10.42bn expected

• Microsoft: $81.27bn vs $80.31bn expected

Health Care: Revenue growth increased to 10.3% from 9.0%

Positive surprises:

• Cigna: $72.50bn vs $70.31bn expected

• CVS Health: $105.69bn vs $103.70bn expected

• Eli Lilly: $19.29bn vs $17.94bn expected

• Centene: $49.73bn vs $48.39bn expected

Communication Services: Revenue growth increased to 12.2% from 10.2%

Key reports:

• Alphabet: $113.83bn vs $111.32bn expected

• Meta: $59.89bn vs $58.46bn expected

Industrials: Revenue growth increased to 7.8% from 5.8%

Positive surprises:

• Boeing: $23.95bn vs $22.60bn expected

• RTX: $24.24bn vs $22.69bn expected

• Caterpillar: $19.13bn vs $17.85bn expected

Other notable upside surprises

• Apollo Global Management: $9.86bn vs $4.77bn expected

• Phillips 66: $36.33bn vs $33.86bn expected

• Amazon: $213.39bn vs $211.44bn expected

• Ford: $45.90bn vs $43.60bn expected

What’s next: forecasts are already cooler

Analysts expect revenue growth to slow through 2026:

• Q1 2026: 8.7% y/y

• Q2 2026: 7.9%

• Q3 2026: 7.3%

• Q4 2026: 7.4%

US500 (D1 timeframe)

FactSet’s earnings-season data look strong, yet this has not translated into an acceleration in S&P 500 futures. That divergence is somewhat concerning, as it may suggest valuations moved ahead of earnings and stocks are priced to perfection, leaving less room for upside. On the other hand, both earnings and revenue momentum still provide tangible support for the US market’s relatively elevated valuation levels.

Source: xStation5