The futures on CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) gains more than 2% today, ahead of key US macro reading of the day, which is the ISM Manufacturing report for March, scheduled at 3 PM GMT. The S&P 500 finished the Q1 2025 down 4.6%, with the worst first quarter of a year since the first quarter of 2022. Investors are threatened by tariffs and their economic consequences.
Investors anticipate that the Mgf. ISM will show 49.5 vs 50.3 previously while JOLTS will fall to 7.665M vs 7.74M previously. Consumers' expectations of the economic future fell in March to a 12-year low, according to the Conference Board. According to Goldman Sachs, if Trump will impose a new tariffs of 15%, the economy will slow to an annual rate of just 1 percent by year end. Also, analysts see greater than 1-in-3 chance of a recession in the next year. "
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appMoody's, EY Parthenon says 20 percent universal tariffs would produce a recession. The Moody's sees unemployment peaking at 7.3 percent in early 2027 and remaining near 6 percent through 2028. According to the most extreme Moody's projections, stocks can lose even one-quarter of their value, with more than 5 million jobs would be lost by early 2027. The biggest risk for markets is that price od goods will rise, while profits and US productivity would slide.
VIX (M15 interval)
VIX tries to rebound above 23.6 Fibo of the recent upward wave at 21.46. As for now, we can expect a consolidation between 38.2 and 23.6 Fibo as markets await key US macro data.
Source: xStation5
