Wheat, corn and soybean futures under pressure after WASDE report 📉

Commodity markets saw modest declines following the latest USDA WASDE report, with soybeans, corn, and wheat all trading lower due to fund-driven and technical selling. While the report itself lacked major surprises, traders responded to adjustments in demand projections and shifting global trade flows. Futures on WHEAT, CORN and SOYBEAN lose more than 1% today.

While WASDE-driven movements were relatively muted, broader macroeconomic concerns and trade uncertainties added to market pressure. With upcoming USDA reports, South American weather developments, and shifting demand patterns, volatility remains on the table for grain and oilseed markets in the coming weeks. In effect, we can see also CME Group (CME.US) shares rising on that fact, and record hedging activity.

WHEAT pressured on higher supply and technical selling

• U.S. wheat ending stocks rose due to higher imports and reduced exports, prompting a downgrade in the projected farm price for 2024/25.
• The USDA increased global wheat production estimates for Argentina, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine, adding to the supply outlook.
• Export forecasts were cut for the EU and Russia but raised for Australia.
• Winter wheat conditions remain mixed, with concerns growing over northern U.S. Plains weather ahead of spring planting.
• European and Black Sea weather patterns will also be key drivers in the coming weeks.

Looking at the WHEAT technicals, we can see a potential 1:1 technical correction pattern, which may suggest easing selling pressure.

Source: xStation5

CORN prices lower amid no positive price-triggers

• U.S. corn stocks remained unchanged, with USDA awaiting early yield data from Argentina and the completion of Brazil’s second crop planting.
• Global trade shifts included lower export forecasts for Brazil and South Africa, while China’s import demand was revised downward.
• Weather in South America continues to be a key watch factor ahead of further supply updates.
• With the March WASDE now behind us, traders turn their attention to the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, due at the end of the month.

Source: xStation5

SOYBEAN slips as demand uncertainty weighs on traders

• The USDA held U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged, with no revisions to production or export estimates for Argentina and Brazil.
• A key shift was a lower average farm price estimate for the 2024/25 season, indicating softer demand expectations.
• Soybean oil declined, reflecting higher U.S. ending stocks, a reduction in biodiesel consumption, and weaker import expectations for canola oil from Canada amid ongoing trade tensions.

Now, traders await South American harvest activity, with Brazil’s supply update from CONAB due Thursday.

Source: xStation5