International Business Machines (IBM) published preliminary results for Q2 2026. Calling the results a disappointment would be a serious understatement.
The company’s shares collapsed by nearly 20%, dragging down a large part of the technology sector as well.
IBM technical analysis (D1) (13.07.2026)
The sharp correction in IBM shares comes almost exactly at the moment when the EMA100 and EMA200 moving averages generated the so-called “golden cross,” a phenomenon that is relatively rare. Considering the Fibonacci ranges and significant price moves over recent months, the stock may finish the session below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (around USD 240). A much harder resistance level to break will be around USD 215, which buyers have defended repeatedly over the past two years. Source: xStation5
Why such a violent reaction?
The negative signal for the market coming from these results is very strong, but also not entirely clear. The headline figures from the release, without context, do not justify a reaction this extreme for a company of this size. At the open, the company lost over USD 50 billion in market capitalization.
- Revenue came in at USD 17.2 billion versus the expected USD 17.8 billion.
- EPS looked better, rising to USD 2.93, but still below market expectations, which were at least USD 3.00.
This release came against the backdrop of a strong run-up in the company’s valuation, supported by expansion in quantum computing and AI. Since May 2026, the shares rose from around USD 215 to nearly USD 300. Even a small earnings miss can be enough to meaningfully reprice a stock from which the market expects significant operating leverage, but that still does not explain the magnitude of the drop.
The key to understanding the market’s reaction lies in the CEO’s comments about capex.
The CEO noted that toward the end of the last quarter, customers suddenly and sharply began redirecting capex spending toward memory, which is becoming an increasingly acute bottleneck in the investment cycle. Management openly acknowledged that this could weigh on the company’s results, at least over the remainder of the current fiscal year.
IBM’s position also implies that if this giant is experiencing real pressure due to memory prices, then the rest of the sector is in a similar situation. Additional concern comes from the fact that the company does not عادة typically publish “preliminary releases.” The results were only supposed to be presented on July 22. This introduces chaos and fuels speculation and doubts, which is also a factor affecting the stock’s behavior.
Even so, for now a 15% to 20% decline is not pricing in a deep deterioration in profitability, but rather a postponement of revenue over time.
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