First round of the French presidential elections was held this Sunday. Results showed that incumbent French President Macron has emerged victorious with a 27.6% support. However, this is significantly short of the 50% required to declare a win in the first round. As a result, the second round of voting will need to be held and it will be held on Sunday, April 24. Macron will face far-right candidate Le Pen, who received 23.4% of votes.
Results of the first round (top 5 candidates)
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Macron - 27.6%
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Le Pen - 23.4%
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Melenchon - 21.9%
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Zemmour - 7.1%
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Pecresse - 4.8%
While it is no surprise that Macron and Le Pen made it to the second round, the solid result of Melenchon may cause a headache for the far-right candidate. While he represents a left-wing party that is discontent with Macron's policies, he also asked his supporters not to vote for Le Pen. However, as his supporter base is dissatisfied with Macron, it means that they may not vote in the second round at all rather than vote for Macron.
Should Macron win the second round, one could expect his second term to be a continuation of the first. Situation is not so clear when it comes to a potential Le Pen victory. Le Pen has been long viewed as a pro-Russian and anti-EU politician. She and her team went to great lengths to distance themselves from this view after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, whether a real change of heart occurred remains a mystery. If her views did not change, her victory may undermine the unity of the European Union and cause headaches for other EU leaders.
As we have already said before, it was expected that Macron and Le Pen would make it to the second round therefore no major moves could be spotted on the markets today. Markets may be much more nervous heading into the second round of voting as latest polls show a very narrow gap between two contenders. Taking a look at the CAC40 chart (FRA40) at daily interval, we can see that the index has halted recent recovery moves and started to pull back. Drop was halted at 6,435 pts support zone, marked with a 38.2% retracement of the recent recovery move, and the index resumed upward move.
Source: xStation5
