差价合约 (""CFDs"") 是复杂工具,并且由于杠杆作用而资本迅速亏损的风险很高。在与该提供商交易差价合约时,76%的零售投资者账户会亏钱。您应该考虑是否了解差价合约是如何运作的,以及您是否有能力承担损失金钱的高风险。

差价合约 (""CFDs"") 是复杂工具,并且由于杠杆作用而资本迅速亏损的风险很高。在与该提供商交易差价合约时,76%的零售投资者账户会亏钱。您应该考虑是否了解差价合约是如何运作的,以及您是否有能力承担损失金钱的高风险。

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Chinese exports come above expectations, imports remain lacklustre

下午3:05 2019年11月8日

Summary:

  • October bring relief to Chinese companies as exports rose much more than expected on the back of improved sentiment surrounding a partial trade deal with the US
  • Imports remained lacklustre from major destinations pointing to rather a fragile demand there
  • A trade surplus with the US kept diminishing when measured by a 12-month rolling window

Chinese exports unexpectedly fell much less than anticipated in October driven by rising optimism regarding an interim trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. In dollar terms exports declined 0.9% compared to the same period last year, while the Bloomberg median estimate had suggested a 3.9% fall. This better than expected reading seems to offer some relief to Chinese companies struggling with falling profits amid factory deflation. At the same time, imports plunged as much as 6.4% in annual terms, producing a lower than expected decline but still remaining deep in the negative territory. Moreover, underperformance in imports has been seen in various destinations for months, as evidenced by the chart below. It implies that domestic demand is rather poor and it may struggle to make a noticeable improvement without a more permanent trade agreement between the US and China leading to some tariff rollbacks. 

Overall, a trade surplus in October amounted to $42.8 billion, up from downwardly revised $39.2 billion. Nevertheless, what could be more important is the fact that since July a Chinese trade overhang has shrunk, when measured by a 12-month rolling window, reaching its lowest level since October 2018. Looking forward, there is a chance to see a more notable improvement in trade activity across the globe once both China and the US stick to their latest non-binding commitments and act toward rolling tariffs back.

Chinese imports kept falling in October, only Australia has resisted this trend. Source: Macrobond, XTB

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