差价合约 (""CFDs"") 是复杂工具,并且由于杠杆作用而资本迅速亏损的风险很高。在与该提供商交易差价合约时,82%的零售投资者账户会亏钱。您应该考虑是否了解差价合约是如何运作的,以及您是否有能力承担损失金钱的高风险。
损失可能超过您的存款

Commodity wrap: Coffee, aluminum, oil, gold (02/06/2020)

下午8:23 2020年6月2日
Coffee:
  • Coffee prices have fallen below 95 cents per pound, the lowest level since October 2019
  • The harvest season of Arabica began in Brazil, Colombia and in several other countries
  • Brazil is one of the world leaders in terms of the number of infections, coronavirus may cause a delay in harvest
  • A survey among producers in Latin American countries indicates that production may be 10% lower than originally planned due to the difficulty realted to employing seasonal workers
  • Record- weak Real has led to increased coffee exports in recent months (March, April, May). On the other hand, all global coffee exports have been hit recently.
  • On the other hand, the recipients of the highest quality coffee are mainly cafes and restaurants, in this case the demand could fall up to 50%, based on surveys
  • ICO expects a supply surplus in the 19/20 season of 1.85 million bags, indicating that in the worst case scenario, due to the pandemic, oversupply could reach 3.42 million bags.
  • Currently, the demand for Arabica has fallen relatively to Robusta, which is also confirmed by a strong increase in exports from countries such as Vietnam or Indonesia
  • Coffee inventories are still declining and are the lowest since 2017
  • Arabica narrowed the divergence with Robusta, which has been rebounding moderately since mid-April

Net positioning is relatively high,  both short and long positions are rebounding. Long positions, however, remain quite low. No specific signal from positioning side.

Coffee inventories levels continue to fall further. However, expectations for high production in Brazil and weak demand do not encourage investing in the coffee market at this time. Source: Bloomberg

Start investing today or test a free demo

开设真实账户 试用模拟 下载移动应用 下载移动应用

Arabica narrowed the divergence with Robusta. The largest companies that deal with the sale and distribution of coffee (Nestle, Starbucks) are consumers mainly Robusta, whose price rebounded since mid-April. Further price increase could also stimulate demand for Arabica. Source: Bloomberg

The price of coffee (Arabica) has fallen even below 95 cents per pound. On the other hand, thanks to the weak Real there is a chance that prices will rebound in the near future. However  it is worth remembering, that the fundamental situation does not support a sharp rebound at this time. Source: xStation5

Aluminum:

  • Significant price divergence between the markets in London and Shanghai, which may be due to an increase in industrial activity in China
  • The situation used for arbitrage, a strong increase in aluminum imports to China expected in May-July
  • Inventories in Shanghai are falling, while LME stocks are the highest since the turn of the year

Premium in China has returned to the aluminum market. It can be seen that the situation that prevailed in China in 2015 initiated a rebound of prices on the London Stock Exchange. Source: Bloomberg

Looking at the market dynamics, prices behaved very similarly last year. However, it can be seen that the price in China has risen strongly since the beginning of April. Price in London began to rebound only from mid-May. Source: Bloomberg

Oil:

  • The oil price has risen sharply in anticipation of the OPEC + group's production cut
  • However, it turns out that in May,  OPEC + cuts reached 77% of the intended target (mainly through Iraq and Nigeria)
  • On the other hand, Iran, Libya and Venezuela are still cutting production
  • The United States reduced production faster than expected, however production was restored in some places after the price returned to 35-40 USD per barrel.
  • Still, drilling activity in the US is very low. The rebound in oil drilling activity may be a sign of the end of the rebound in the oil market

Drilling activity in the US remains very low. The number of completed wells has dropped dramatically. Source: Bloomberg

Oil breaks through the highs of March 11, following a sale-off related to the termination of an earlier OPEC + agreement. Source: xStation5

Gold:

  • Option market investors are not afraid of drastic price increases in the near future. Large divergence with risk-reverse indices
  • Copper to gold ratio has rebounded significantly, while the copper to silver ratio remains very low. Yields on 10-year US bonds remain "in the middle" in terms of the dynamics. This may be a sign that silver is taking the lead, but also that the rebound in industrial metal prices was too strong.
  • Gold to silver ratio falls below 100

Option market investors have remained neutral recently. They are not afraid of the risk of a sudden increase in gold prices. Source: Bloomberg

Copper to gold ratio increased significantly, while copper to silver fell. Silver has been in a strong upward trend recently. Yields in the US remain low due to central bank activities, although the lack of a clear rebound may also indicate that the rebound on industrial metals (copper) was too rapid. Source: Bloomberg

share
back
Xtb logo

加入来自世界各地超过
1,000,000 名投资者的行列

我们使用cookies

点击“全部接受”,即表示您同意在您的设备上存储 cookies,以增强网站导航、分析网站使用情况并协助我们的营销工作。

这组包含我们网站运行所需要的 cookies。 它们参与语言偏好、流量分配或保持用户会话等功能。 它们不能被禁用。

Cookie名称
描述
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol 抄送 2024年3月2日
adobe_unique_id 抄送 2025年3月1日
SESSID 抄送 2024年3月2日
__hssc 抄送 2022年9月8日
__cf_bm 抄送 2022年9月8日
intercom-id-iojaybix 抄送 2024年11月26日
intercom-session-iojaybix 抄送 2024年3月8日

我们使用工具来分析页面的使用情况。 此类数据使我们能够改善网络服务的用户体验。

Cookie名称
描述
_gid 抄送 2022年9月9日
_gat_UA-69161842-1 抄送 2022年9月8日
_gat_UA-121192761-1 抄送 2022年9月8日
_ga_CBPL72L2EC 抄送 2026年3月1日
_ga 抄送 2026年3月1日
__hstc 抄送 2023年3月7日
__hssrc

这组 cookies 用于向您展示您感兴趣的主题的广告。它还可以让我们监控我们的营销活动,它有助于衡量我们广告的效果。

Cookie名称
描述
MUID 抄送 2025年3月26日
_uetsid 抄送 2024年3月2日
_uetvid 抄送 2025年3月26日
hubspotutk 抄送 2023年3月7日

这组的 Cookies 存储您在使用该网站时提供的偏好,以便您在一段时间后访问该页面时它们已经存在。

Cookie名称
描述

此页面使用 cookies。 Cookies 是存储在您的浏览器中的文件,大多数网站都使用这些文件来帮助您个性化您的网络体验。 如需更多信息,请参阅我们的隐私政策您可以通过点击“设置”来管理 cookies。 如果您同意我们使用 cookies,请单击“全部接受”。

更改区域和语言
居住国家
语言