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Commodity wrap - WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, cotton, gold (16.02.2021)

下午9:55 2021年2月16日

WTI crude oil (technical factors):

  • Oil closes the bullish price gap related to the turmoil in the Middle East and the seizure of an Iranian tanker by the United States
  • There have been significant divergences between the dollar and crude oil in recent months
  • It can also be said that oil may react with some delay - after the dollar appreciated in early January, the oil fell into consolidation (similarly to the EURUSD pair, which then clearly weakened)
  • Only now oil can react to the dollar appreciation marked with a triangle on the chart. The EURUSD pair is now closing the divergence. However, if the support set by the lower limit of the bullish price gap is broken, WTI crude oil could fall towards $56-57 per barrel.

We are currently observing a closing of the divergence from the EURUSD. However, a delayed reaction from the oil itself is also possible, as was the case at the beginning or end of October. Source: xStation5

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Brent crude oil (fundamental factors):

  • Hundreds of millions of dollars are transferred to commodity related ETFs due to inflation concerns
  • Despite the fact that there have been no good macroeconomic readings from the US recently (labor market, consumer confidence or also inflation), a boom in inflation may not take place until spring, due to the support program for the US economy, including "Biden checks" Is it possible to open up the economy, which will trigger a demand rally?
  • According to Russia, a significant drop in market volatility means a return to balance on the market, which could theoretically mean an increase in production in the near future
  • Russia wants to ease production cuts from April. The United Arab Emirates have a similar opinion, as they believe that the prices have risen too high
  • It is worth remembering that from April, not only higher production from the entire OPEC + may return (theoretically 1.5 million barrels per day, which was to be distributed in the first quarter of this year), but also 1 million barrels per day, which was voluntarily withdrawn by Saudi Arabia

The influx of large funds into ETFs may offer a chance for a continuation of price increases in the short term. It's worth noting that in most cases, ETFs invest in contracts with a short-term maturity, which means raising prices in the short term. On the other hand, in the case of over-investment, it can cause problems with rollovers (as was the case in April last year). However, the investment strategy of ETFs has changed since then and they also invest in medium to long term contracts. Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank

Brent crude oil is still far from the long-term downtrend that was drawn on the basis of the 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2018 highs. It may act as a certain "demand destruction"barrier. As such, prices this year are likely to average below $ 70 per barrel, with a strong supply zone marked with 2019 and 2020 highs. Along the way, resistance and support levels will be determined by the limits of the ascending channel. The range of upward movement is determined by the first bullish wave from 2008-2010. The theoretical high should therefore take place in August, although it can be seen that production will increase in April-May. The seasonality indicates that we should experience a lot of consolidation from May, while the peak should appear in September. Source: xStation5

Cotton:

  • The price of cotton has already increased by over 13% this year. However, since the March low, price increased more than 90%, while since the beginning of 2020 (i.e. from the last local peaks) the price has increased by approx. 30%
  • USDA is successively lowering its outlook regarding cotton inventories levels around the world, especially in the United States due to the drastic decline in acreage
  • However, the world hopes for large exports from India, which would lead to price stabilization (India is the largest producer of this commodity in the world)
  • It is worth noting that higher cotton prices are also associated with rising oil prices, which results in higher prices of artificial materials used in the production of clothing
  • At the moment, however, the world should not be afraid of a price jump, similar to the one that took place in 2010, due to the large production levels around the world

Currently, prices are supported by reduced acreage and a decline in closing stocks. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that we are far from the situation where production collapsed in 2010/2011 due to a large deficit. Currently, for the second year in a row, we are also dealing with a significant deficit.  On the other hand, consumption inventories remain relatively high. Source: USDA

As one can see, we have a significant decline in acreage in the US, which is the main reason behind the price rally. Nevertheless, India is the biggest force in the market, and it can revive production as an economic recovery from the pandemic. Source: USDA

The price recorded a slight semi-contango. Later, the market expects lower prices. The market speculates that concerns about the lack of cotton on the market may return. The sharp decline in US acreage and lower production expectations in India raise concerns. On the other hand, India should increase its production prospects later in the year, similar to what China is currently showing. Source: Bloomberg

The price exceeded the range of upward waves observed within the last 8 years. On the other hand, taking the 2019 low as a basis, the price would not be much above the range. Nevertheless, the price is currently at the key resistance level of 96 cents per pound. Long-term seasonality indicates that the peaks should be reached in the coming weeks. Source: xStation5

Gold:

  • Inflation will return in 2021, according to the chief investment officer of Bank of America.
  • "The movement of people will increase, which will increase the movement (speed) of money"
  • In the second quarter of this year, with a clear economic recovery inflation may jump even 4%, which may cause a rally of precious metals
  • Higher yields are not necessarily a very bad factor for gold. They will, however, indicate that we are dealing with inflation

Yields increase along with the copper - gold ratio. Assuming a scale of rebound similar to that in 2009, to the level of 6, the10Y would reach “only” 2%. Assuming the gold price is around $ 1,800-2,000, the copper price should be in the range of $ 10,800-12,000 per ton. Source: Bloomberg

The key support for gold is located around $ 1730 an ounce. Theoretically, seasonality indicates that these levels could be reached in March, but from then on, the gold price should resume its upward trend. Source: xStation5

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