Summary:
- ECB to publish minutes today, WASDE report release in the afternoon
- Second day of Powell’s congressional testimonies
- US CPI inflation seen decelerating in June
8:30 am BST - Sweden, CPI inflation for June. The Swedish CPI inflation has been holding quite firm around 2% handle throughout 2019. Market expects price growth gauge to decline from 2.2% to 1.9% in June. However, as Riksbank is likely to stay on hold for some time the reading should not have much of an impact on the Swedish krona.
12:30 pm BST - ECB minutes. Minutes of the European Central Bank are not as closely watched by the markets as the ones of the US central bank. Draghi was dovish during, both, post-meeting press conference and forum in Sintra therefore message in today’s minutes will be dovish too. However, as this is widely expect, no bigger moves should occur in the aftermath of the release.
1:30 pm BST - US, CPI inflation for June and jobless claims. Low inflation has often been raised as an argument for Fed not to engage in any monetary tightening. As the Federal Reserve is likely to ease its policy in the near future, inflation may once again come into focus. A significant pick-up in the price growth could barr the US central bank from providing more stimulus. Headline CPI is expected to decline from 1.8% to 1.6% in June while the core gauge should stay unchanged at 2% YoY. Simultaneously, jobless claims reading will be released and it is forecasted to show 223k.
3:00 pm BST - Powell testifies before Senate Banking Commission. Release of the text of Powell’s testimony depressed the US dollar as it gave a clear signal that a rate cut is coming soon. As the text of a testimony in the Senate Banking Commission will be the same there is a smaller scope for bigger prices moves. However, the Q&A session may spurr elevated volatilty.
5:00 pm BST - WASDE report. Planting season is over and more data is available to estimate this season’s crop. The upcoming WASDE report will provide investors with more accurate forecasts of crop, ending stocks or yield and thus have a scope to trigger some repricing on the grains market. Markets will focus especially on the soybean estimates as plantings were significant delayed and crop quality was worse than in the previous years.
Central bankers’ speeches:
- 11:00 am BST - BoE Governor Carney
- 11:15 am BST - ECB’s Benoit
- 1:55 pm BST - RBA’s Debelle
- 4:10 pm BST - Fed’s Williams
- 5:15 pm BST - Fed’s Bostic
- 5:30 pm BST - Fed’s Barkin
- 6:30 pm BST - Fed’s Quarles
- 6:30 pm BST - Fed’s Williams
- 10:00 pm BST - Fed’s Kashkari
