Summary:
- Jerome Powell to testify before Senate Committee
- Group of BoE members will discuss inflation report in the UK parliament
- Delayed housing data for December from the US
Readings from the United States dominate macroeconomic calendar on Tuesday. However, one may also expected somewhat elevated volatility on other majors as well. This is due to the fact that a five different ECB members will deliver speeches today while group of the UK central bankers will appear before the Treasury Committee to discuss the latest inflation report (10:00 am GMT). Coming back to the United States it should be noted that Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will testify before the Senate Banking Committee (2:45 pm GMT). Last but not least, HUF traders may want to keep on guard at 1:00 pm GMT as Central Bank of Hungary will announce interest rate decision.
1:30 pm GMT - United States, Building permits and starts for December. Data from the US housing market has been mixed for some time already. A streak of downbeat readings was halted by the US government shutdown and today’s release threatens resumption. Fed’s desire to pause monetary tightening can be seen as somewhat positive to the US housing markets as raising interest rate cause mortgages to be more expensive and in turn demand for them shrinks. Nevertheless, it should be noted that any improvement spurring from this fact may be seen from the January’s reading. Market consensus expects declines in both cases.
3:00 pm GMT - United States, CB consumer confidence and Richmond manufacturing index for February. Another batch of the US data scheduled for release today will include the Conference Board consumer confidence as well as Richmond manufacturing gauge. When it comes to the former, UoM index pushed higher this month and so might be the case for the CB print (improvement expected by markets). Things are more tricky when it comes to the latter reading. Regional manufacturing indices from the US were mixed as of late and no clear tendency can be seen among them. Having said that, those prints may hint at potential weak regions in the US and should be implemented in the broader analysis of the US economy.
9:40 pm GMT - API crude oil stocks. Rally on the oil market was put to a brutal halt yesterday when Donald Trump addressed crude prices on Twitter. The US president wrote that oil prices are getting too high and that OPEC should relax. The question remains whether oil producers will adhere to the Trump’s call or not. The outlook for the oil market this year will depend hugely on their decision. Meanwhile, oil traders may stick to regular inventories data that provides short-term price swings. Market expects API reading to show a million barrel drop in stockpiles.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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8:30 am GMT - ECB’s de Cos
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9:30 am GMT - ECB’s Lane
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10:00 am GMT - BoE’s Carney, Ramsden, Vlieghe and Haskel
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2:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Mersch
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2:45 pm GMT - Fed Chair Powell
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4:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Visco
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7:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Coeure
Brent (OIL) took a significant dive yesterday following Trump’s tweet release. The benchmark crude pullback almost 4% on Monday and may be set to extend decline in case the US president continues to pressure OPEC. In such scenario, the first support to watch could be $63 area, where the upper limit of the triangle pattern can be found. Source: xStation5
