Summary:
- Hungarian central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged
- US existing home sales and regional Fed index from Richmond
- Polish construction output to shed more light on the investment backdrop in the second quarter
9:00 am BST - Polish construction output for June: The latest data for June (industrial production, retail sales and wage growth in the enterprise sector) could be described as somewhat disappointing, albeit there have been some one-off factors which could be in play today as well. Among them we may single out extremely high temperature and as many as 2 working days less YoY (the SA mechanism may have some difficulties to capture all of these impacts). Anyway, this could play a major role today as well, hence the consensus calling for a 3.5% YoY jump could not be easily achievable. Finally, today’s release will shed more light on the pace of gross fixed capital formation in the economy during the three months through June.
1:00 pm BST - Hungarian central bank rate decision: The consensus does not point to any move at today’s meeting, hence the bank’s 2-week repo rate should be kept at 0.9%.
2:00 pm BST - US house price index for May: The Bloomberg median estimate indicates at a 0.4% MoM increase.
3:00 pm BST - US existing home sales for June and regional Fed index from Richmond for July: The US housing market has once again gone off the boil lately in spite of the fact that the market ought to experience some positive factors like lower rates in the near-term. If the Fed rolls out several rate cuts over the next couple of quarters, it may significantly reduce mortgage rates. The consensus calls for -0.4% MoM or 5.32 million. In turn, the median estimate concerning the regional Fed index from Richmond points to a slight rebound to 5 from 2.
