Summary:
- Holiday in the US and Canada on Monday
- Minutes of Fed and ECB as well as flash PMIs will dominate this week
- RBA minutes in the spotlight this night
Global markets have staged a truly impressive rally so far in 2019. Whatever it’s been based on (dovish Fed, trade talk hopes, averted second shutdown) it certainly wasn’t the macroeconomic data. A vision of a slowdown or even a recession is still very real and the data to be released next week will update us on the outlook both for the economy and central bank policies.
Flash PMI data from Europe and US (Thursday): The PMI indices are receiving more and more clout for being timely indicators for the pulse of the global economy. As the economy seems to be at the crossroads this is the crucial time for indicators to inform us where we are headed. Is Europe doomed for a recession? Will the US follow Europe into a slowdown?
Central bank minutes: Fed (Wednesday), ECB (Thursday): Central banks are turning their hawkish rhetoric down - there’s no question about it. The Fed signalled it willingness to refrain from more interest rate hikes and ECB bankers have quietly leaked signals that the first hike since 2011 will need to wait. Minutes from January meetings will update us on their thinking.
Sino-US talks to continue this week: Much hyped trade talks that took place last week in China did not produce a breakdown but markets cheered a proposed 60-day extension of time for more negotiations. These negotiations will continue this week in the US and that could be taken as a sign of a goodwill but the concern is that progress has been much slower than expected.
Central banks:
- 00:30 am GMT (Tuesday) - RBA's minutes
After the four attempts of trying to move through 1.13 the EURUSD finally did so overnight. As a result, the pair could continue climbing with the first notable resistance localized at around 1.1340. Source: xStation5
