差价合约 (""CFDs"") 是复杂工具,并且由于杠杆作用而资本迅速亏损的风险很高。在与该提供商交易差价合约时,82%的零售投资者账户会亏钱。您应该考虑是否了解差价合约是如何运作的,以及您是否有能力承担损失金钱的高风险。
损失可能超过您的存款

Silver - fundamental outlook for next year

下午8:38 2018年12月17日

Summary:

  • Silver and gold are perceived as safe haven assets

  • Both commodities tend to move in the same direction in the long-term

  • Silver may benefit from calmness across markets on the back of a different demand profile

  • Speculative positioning suggests that silver remains oversold

Weak 2018

Start investing today or test a free demo

开设真实账户 试用模拟 下载移动应用 下载移动应用

This year has not proved to be successful for investors in the silver market. Solid gains were seen only at the turn of 2007 and 2008 due to a massive retreat in the equity market. Subsequently, range trading began and the price was trading between $16.2 and $17 during the first half of the year. This consolidation moved toward a profound sell-off during the second half of this year. What was the prime cause behind this change? The answer is the strong US dollar and a rally seen in equity markets across the globe. The greenback was supported by higher bond yields as well as the anticipated quicker pace of monetary tightening (4 instead of 3 hikes this year). The last move (the 4th rate increase) could take place this Wednesday. In recent weeks we have seen some signs of a bounce in silver prices but momentum has been weakish so far. The similar scenario has been seen in gold prices. Will silver prices follow gold prices if the latter go up?

Gold prices have moved higher compared to silver prices in recent weeks as evidenced in the chart above. Note that gold has reached the bottom sooner than silver. Source: xStation5

Production and costs

Silver output shrank last year compared to the level seen in 2015 and it is expected to shrink this and the following year. As a result, the deficit has occurred. Mining costs are hard to determine due to the fact that silver is mined as if ‘inadvertently’ when other industrial metals are mined - copper in particular. However, cash costs are estimated to be around $11 per ounce (the average global cost), whereas total costs are estimated to be between $13 and $16 per ounce (not that this is again the average range and costs differ markedly as we move from one mine to another one). As a consequence, one may arrive at a conclusion that silver production should not fall substantially in the years to come. Nevertheless, in case of gold one may expect further production declines which to some extent could lower silver production as well.

Gold production is forecast to fall in the next year, therefore the silver market could experience lower output alike. What’s more, the lower gold production could translate into higher gold prices and thereby silver prices. Source: Bloomberg

Where does the demand come from?

Industrial demand should account for a lion’s share of the total demand in the silver market next year. It could be tied to a marked increase of demand in sectors such as automotive and photovoltaics. Furthermore, nowadays there is increasing interest of alternative sources of energy with a move toward cars being powered by these energy sources.

Industry could constitute the largest portion of demand in the silver market. Source: Bloomberg

Higher expected household income in India may boost the jewelry demand. Source: Bloomberg

The investment demand does not look so optimistically. ETF funds shed some of their silver holdings in the past quarter. What’s more, negative correlation between these holdings and silver prices arose. However, higher gold prices seen in recent weeks could bring an end to this. Source: Bloomberg

Are bond yields a good leading indicator?

The gold/silver ratio is high but there could be some delay in case of silver prices which needs to be taken into account. For example, in 2011 the peak in silver prices occurred six months after the peak in gold prices. The same was seen in 2016. Nevertheless, some relationship could be seen also between the gold/silver ratio and the US 10Y yield. After the latter has seen a massive decrease in recent weeks one may suspect that the ratio could move south soon. What’s more, if the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish hike, yields may continue moving down and weighing on the mentioned ratio. In addition to this, a possible extension of falls in the equity markets could support higher gold and silver prices as well.

US yields point to overvaluation of the gold/silver ratio. However, it needs to be said that it does not mean that silver prices have to rise - gold prices may simply rise slower than silver prices in order to see the lower ratio. Source: xStation5

Speculative positioning still points to silver undervaluation

The net speculative positioning remains negative but it has rebounded of late. However, a number of longs has not increased suggesting the weak bullish momentum. Source: Bloomberg

Silver - a chance for higher levels

Based on historical movements of silver prices one may suspect that silver prices may have already bottomed out. The pace of rate hikes in the US is expected to slow in quarters to come and economic growth should lose some momentum next year. Seasonally, gold and silver prices tend to rise when a year kicks off and we think that this scenario could repeat at the beginning of 2019.

Silver prices tend to increase when a year starts. Source: Bloomberg

Based on some technical patterns one may expect a rise in silver prices at least by $1.4 per ounce. Nonetheless, if the Fed turns out to be more dovish, it could push silver prices yet higher. Therefore, we recommend to go long at a market price with a stop order at $13.75 and a target at $15.65 and $17. Source: xStation5

share
back
Xtb logo

加入来自世界各地超过
1,000,000 名投资者的行列

我们使用cookies

点击“全部接受”,即表示您同意在您的设备上存储 cookies,以增强网站导航、分析网站使用情况并协助我们的营销工作。

这组包含我们网站运行所需要的 cookies。 它们参与语言偏好、流量分配或保持用户会话等功能。 它们不能被禁用。

Cookie名称
描述
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol 抄送 2024年3月2日
adobe_unique_id 抄送 2025年3月1日
SESSID 抄送 2024年3月2日
__hssc 抄送 2022年9月8日
__cf_bm 抄送 2022年9月8日
intercom-id-iojaybix 抄送 2024年11月26日
intercom-session-iojaybix 抄送 2024年3月8日

我们使用工具来分析页面的使用情况。 此类数据使我们能够改善网络服务的用户体验。

Cookie名称
描述
_gid 抄送 2022年9月9日
_gat_UA-69161842-1 抄送 2022年9月8日
_gat_UA-121192761-1 抄送 2022年9月8日
_ga_CBPL72L2EC 抄送 2026年3月1日
_ga 抄送 2026年3月1日
__hstc 抄送 2023年3月7日
__hssrc

这组 cookies 用于向您展示您感兴趣的主题的广告。它还可以让我们监控我们的营销活动,它有助于衡量我们广告的效果。

Cookie名称
描述
MUID 抄送 2025年3月26日
_uetsid 抄送 2024年3月2日
_uetvid 抄送 2025年3月26日
hubspotutk 抄送 2023年3月7日

这组的 Cookies 存储您在使用该网站时提供的偏好,以便您在一段时间后访问该页面时它们已经存在。

Cookie名称
描述

此页面使用 cookies。 Cookies 是存储在您的浏览器中的文件,大多数网站都使用这些文件来帮助您个性化您的网络体验。 如需更多信息,请参阅我们的隐私政策您可以通过点击“设置”来管理 cookies。 如果您同意我们使用 cookies,请单击“全部接受”。

更改区域和语言
居住国家
语言