Next week will be a shorter one, at least in terms of market liquidity, as US markets and traders will be off for Thursday and Friday to celebrate Thanksgiving. Next week will be heavy with central bank related events as RBNZ and CBRT are scheduled to announce rate decisions while Fed and ECB will publish minutes from its latest meetings. Be sure to watch GOLD, NZDUSD and EURTRY next week!
GOLD
FOMC minutes will be released at 7:00 pm GMT on Wednesday next week. Policy statement from the latest Fed meeting was seen as dovish but it was followed by probably the most hawkish Powell conference on record. Speeches from Fed members delivered since the meeting also have been mixed with some trying to send a balanced message while others, like for example Bullard, were straight up hawkish. However, given that policy statement was somewhat dovish, there is a high chance that minutes will be dovish as well and it could be a fuel for a move lower in USD and a move higher in gold.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD is likely to move following the release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening. However, the pair will also be on the move earlier that day as RBNZ is set to announce monetary policy decisions at 1:00 am GMT. New Zealand's central bank is expected to deliver an outsized 75 basis point rate hike, following a streak of 50 bp rate hikes. Elevated inflation is seen as a prime reason for these expectations. However, some say that recent weakness in New Zealand's housing market may cause RBNZ to go with another 50 bp rate move.
EURTRY
ECB will release minutes from its latest meeting on Thursday, 12:30 pm GMT. However, release could be non-event as the main takeaway from the meeting were announced changes to TLTRO mechanism. Namely, changing to the terms and allowing early repayment of those. Minutes may therefore reinforce a hawkish message sent during that meeting and recently confirmed in speeches from ECB members. EURTRY may be active on Thursday also because CBRT is set to announce a rate decision (11:00 am GMT), with the main rate expected to be left unchanged at 10.50%.
