SpaceX Share Price (SPCX): What to Expect After the IPO

Table of contents

1. What is the SpaceX IPO price?
2. Is $135 expensive?
3. What history tells us about mega-cap IPOs
4. The structural factors that make SPCX unusual
5. Key dates after the IPO
6. What analysts are saying
7. What could push the share price higher
8. What could push the share price lower
9. The bottom line for UK investors

What is the SpaceX IPO price?

SpaceX has set a fixed IPO price of $135 per share, targeting a valuation of $1.77 trillion, with plans to sell 555.6 million shares amounting to a $75 billion fundraise. The underwriters hold an option to purchase an additional 83.33 million shares at the same price, which would add a further $11.2 billion. 

Goldman Sachs is leading the offering, alongside Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. 

One aspect of this IPO is worth noting immediately: SpaceX launched its roadshow at a fixed price rather than a price range, breaking with standard Wall Street convention. That structure signals that demand from institutional investors already exceeded supply at $135 before marketing formally began. 

The $135 IPO price is what institutional investors pay during the offer period. UK investors buying through a share dealing account from 12 June will pay the market price at the time their order is placed, which may be higher or lower, depending on how trading opens.

Is $135 expensive?

At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would be the seventh-largest company in the US by market capitalisation. To put that in context: it would be worth more than Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, and LVMH on the day it lists.

SpaceX generated approximately $15–16 billion in revenue in its most recent full year. Applied to a $1.77 trillion valuation, that implies a revenue multiple of roughly 100 times, far above what a mature industrial company would receive. Even for a high-growth technology company, that is a demanding starting point.

Morningstar analysts have described SpaceX as "significantly overvalued" ahead of the IPO, placing their discounted cash flow valuation at $780 billion, roughly 55% below the $1.77 trillion IPO target. They also flagged that the xAI merger poses a "material threat of value destruction." 

That does not make it a bad investment. It means the market is pricing in a very long runway of growth in Starlink subscribers, launch volume, AI infrastructure, and Starship commercialisation and leaving little margin for error. SpaceX itself estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion across broadband, launch services, and AI infrastructure. Whether the company can capture enough of that to justify the valuation is the central question every investor needs to form a view on. 

What history tells us about mega-cap IPOs

History provides both reasons for optimism and reasons for caution about what happens to share prices in the weeks and months after a major listing.

The post-IPO pattern for high-profile technology companies is rarely straightforward. Airbnb priced at $68 in December 2020 and more than doubled on its first day of trading, closing at $144.71 - a 113% gain. That euphoric debut reflected a specific moment of retail investor enthusiasm, pandemic-era liquidity, and a company that was already profitable.

Rivian raised $11.9 billion in November 2021, the largest US IPO of that year with shares rising 29% on their first day. But the stock dropped below its IPO price within weeks and now trades approximately 85% below the original offer price.

Arm Holdings, the biggest IPO of 2023, rose 25% on its first day and has largely held those gains, a more typical outcome for a profitable, well-understood business with institutional demand.

Facebook's IPO in 2012 is the most instructive comparable for a company of SpaceX's ambition and scale. The listing was famously troubled in its first weeks, Nasdaq's order-handling system glitched on debut day and the stock spent more than a year below its $38 offer price before becoming one of the best-performing mega-cap IPOs in market history. 

The lesson across all of these is consistent: first-day and first-week performance tells you almost nothing about where a stock will be in two or three years. The investors who did best from both Airbnb and Meta were those who held through the volatility rather than trying to time the opening.

The structural factors that make SPCX unusual

Several features of this IPO are genuinely unlike anything seen before, and they will directly affect how the share price behaves in the weeks after listing.

A fixed price, not a price range. Most IPOs set a range and narrow it through bookbuilding. SpaceX launched at a fixed price of $135, a structure that signals demand already exceeded supply at that level before the roadshow began. This removes the typical mechanism by which a company "leaves money on the table" to generate first-day pop.

Unusually high retail allocation. SpaceX has allocated roughly 30% of the offering to retail investors through Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, three times the typical retail carve-out for a mega-cap IPO. That means a larger proportion of the initial float will be held by individual investors rather than long-term institutional holders, which typically increases short-term volatility. 

A 5% friends-and-family carve-out with no lockup. 5% of shares have been carved out for "certain employees and persons and friends and families of executive officers" who face no lockup restriction at all, meaning recipients who bought at $135 may sell on the first day of trading. At the IPO valuation, that represents approximately $3.75 billion of stock that could hit the market immediately. 

A phased, graduated lockup structure for other insiders. Rather than a single 180-day lockup cliff, SpaceX has built in a series of release valves that allow pre-IPO investors to sell portions of stock in phases after the IPO. The first tranche 20% of eligible shares can be sold after SpaceX reports Q2 earnings. A further 10% unlocks if the share price is at least 30% above the IPO price for at least five of the next ten trading days. Additional tranches follow at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days. All shares become eligible to sell 180 days after the IPO. Notably, Musk himself is subject to the full lockup and cannot participate in the early-release provisions.

Nasdaq 100 inclusion in 15 trading days. This is the most significant structural feature of all. Nasdaq amended its inclusion rules in May 2026, shortening the waiting period for Nasdaq-100 membership from around three months to just 15 trading days for megacap IPOs among the 40 largest nonfinancial companies. Based on a 12 June listing, SpaceX would be eligible to join the index on or around 7 July. That means every tracker fund and ETF benchmarked against the Nasdaq-100 would be forced to buy SPCX within weeks of listing, creating a wave of mandatory institutional buying that could substantially offset any early selling pressure.

Key dates after the IPO

Understanding the post-IPO calendar is essential for any investor thinking beyond day one.

12 June 2026 — First day of trading. SPCX begins trading on the Nasdaq. High volatility expected. The friends-and-family carve-out means up to $3.75 billion of unlocked stock could be sold on day one.

~7 July 2026 — Potential Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Index funds and ETFs tracking the Nasdaq-100 would need to buy SPCX to match their benchmarks. This is a structural buying event that is independent of any view on SpaceX's fundamental value.

Late July / early August 2026 — Q2 earnings and first insider selling window. SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company triggers the initial lockup release. Up to 20% of eligible insider shares — and an additional 10% if the stock is trading 30% above $135 — become available for sale.

September–December 2026 — Rolling insider selling windows. Additional tranches unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days. With Musk controlling 85% of voting power and approximately 42% of equity, his intentions represent the central variable. Early employees, venture investors, and bank syndicate allocations will all become potential sellers through this window. 

180 days post-IPO (~December 2026) — Full lockup expiry. All pre-IPO shares become eligible for sale. This is typically the period of maximum supply pressure for any IPO stock.

What analysts are saying

Analyst opinion on SpaceX at IPO is sharply divided, more so than for almost any comparable listing in recent memory.

Morningstar has been the most prominent bear, placing a $780 billion fair value on SpaceX, roughly 55% below the IPO target. Its analysts argue the upcoming IPO does not offer the best entry point for retail investors, and that long-term investors will likely find better entry points with "a greater margin of safety" after listing. Morningstar also flagged that despite the unusual small initial float, buoyant institutional demand, and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion tailwind, SpaceX's share price will "likely survive separation" meaning it expects first-day performance to hold up, even as it views the valuation as stretched. 

AJ Bell's head of markets noted that "little is known" about SpaceX's financials given its history as a private company, which limits the quality of any fundamental analysis at this stage. 

More detailed balance sheet data now available via the S-1 filing shows that as of end of Q1 2026, SpaceX held approximately $30 billion in debt and $16 billion in cash, a net debt position of around $14 billion against total assets of $92 billion. Notably, $20 billion of that debt is in the form of a bridge loan maturing 15 months after the IPO, presenting a refinancing risk, though the IPO proceeds are expected to address it. 

What could push the share price higher

Several factors could drive SPCX meaningfully above its IPO price in the near to medium term.

Nasdaq-100 inclusion. As described above, mandatory buying from index trackers within weeks of listing is a structural tailwind that has nothing to do with SpaceX's operational performance.

Starlink growth. The company had 10 million subscribers as of early 2026, up from 4 million in late 2024. Continued rapid growth particularly in enterprise and aviation would directly improve the revenue and profit picture.

Starship commercial milestones. Successful commercial launches using the next-generation Starship rocket would validate the case for dramatically lower orbital launch costs and open new markets.

S&P 500 inclusion. Rule changes are reportedly under consideration that could allow SpaceX to join the S&P 500 before end of 2026, which would trigger another wave of forced institutional buying at even greater scale than Nasdaq-100 inclusion.

Favourable US government contracts. SpaceX is deeply embedded in NASA, the US military, and the intelligence community. New contract awards or renewals would provide both revenue certainty and a positive signal to institutional investors.

What could push the share price lower

The valuation is the primary risk. At 100 times revenue, there is very little room for execution disappointment. Any slowdown in Starlink subscriber growth, any Starship programme setback, or any deterioration in the AI segment's losses could trigger a sharp re-rating.

Insider selling pressure. The phased lockup releases from late July onwards introduce significant additional supply to the market at regular intervals through the end of 2026. Even if Musk himself does not sell, the cumulative weight of other insiders selling across multiple tranches will be a recurring overhang.

The xAI drag. SpaceX invested three times more on AI than rockets last year and lost $6.3 billion on that segment. Absorbing those losses while funding Starship development and Starlink expansion simultaneously puts pressure on the balance sheet, and the bridge loan refinancing creates a specific near-term deadline.

Increased competition. Amazon's Project Kuiper satellite broadband network is gaining momentum and has the financial backing to compete with Starlink at scale. Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and several Chinese providers are all investing in launch capacity. The competitive moat is real but not impenetrable.

Musk factor. His public conduct and political activity have moved Tesla's share price materially on multiple occasions — in both directions. The same dynamic will apply to SPCX.

The bottom line for UK investors

SpaceX is trading at a valuation that demands extraordinary long-term execution. The analysts who say it is expensive are not wrong, a 100x revenue multiple is stretched by any conventional measure. The analysts who say it could still deliver are not wrong either, the infrastructure moat in launch and satellite broadband is genuinely unusual, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone will drive institutional buying regardless of fundamentals.

What history tells us clearly is that the first days and weeks of trading are the hardest to predict and often the worst time to judge a company's long-term trajectory. Investors who bought Meta on day one and held through a difficult first year made exceptional returns. Those who bought Rivian on the first-day high did not.

If you're considering investing in SpaceX, the most important questions are not about the share price on 12 June. They are: what is your view on Starlink's long-term subscriber trajectory, whether Starship achieves commercial viability, and whether you are comfortable holding through a volatile post-IPO period that could last into early 2027.

Ready to invest in SpaceX from day one? Open your XTB account now.

Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. SpaceX shares (SPCX) are a US-listed stock and cannot currently be held in a Stocks and Shares ISA. Any gains may be subject to UK Capital Gains Tax. This article does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks before investing.